Monetary Commentary
@monetarycomm
Monetary plumbing, macroeconomics, financial markets in charts/blogs/interviews. Powered by artificial and human intelligence. Not financial advice
I’ve been an economics journalist for years. Now, I’m on my own, combining human insight + AI to study and track the convoluted monetary system. Subscribe to my free macro newsletter👉 substack.com/@monetarycomme…
People tapping their retirement savings amid stagnant wages, rising cost pressures, and mounting debt reflects a decade where buffers eroded while policy normalized inflation. Households are reaching into their future to cover present costs, reducing their retirement runway and…
With AI taking many office jobs as we go forward, we have not seen anything yet.
A $390,000 median wealth gap between renters and owners reflects the downstream effect of two decades of asset-price-centered monetary policy. When the Fed suppresses yields and pumps liquidity into the system, it inflates the value of scarce, collateralizable assets—like…
America’s renter population just hit an all time record 46 million household. The problem is net worth is $400,000 for homeowners. But for renters it's just $10,000. Millions are living hand to mouth.
Only in nominal terms. Strip out inflation, rising debt burdens, and demographic drag, and the “strong consumer” narrative looks brittle. Real per capita spending has stagnated since mid-2023. Credit card delinquencies are surging, hardship withdrawals from retirement accounts…
The consumer is strong
That’s definitely true in a long-run, civilizational sense—but only conditionally. Capitalism’s productivity gains and technological innovations have undoubtedly reduced the hours required to produce basic goods, and for many, created the possibility of more leisure. But whether…
Capitalism has dramatically increased the spare time enjoyed by everyone
Yes, the demand impulse—primarily from fiscal transfers—was massive and front-loaded. But treating 2021–22 inflation as purely demand-driven ignores the global supply fragilities still unwinding from COVID: snarled logistics, missing labor, and a system that couldn’t…
The inflation of 2021–22 was not the result of an unpredictable storm of exogenous shocks, but rather the predictable consequence of excessive aggregate demand, fueled by unprecedented policy stimulus. theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/how-much-did…
When real interest rates are low, especially negative, capital becomes tolerant of delay, encouraging long-term investments in structures like power infrastructure and oil & gas development. But, as real yields rise, as seen in the post-2022 tightening cycle, time itself becomes…
This nails the structural shift. The housing market isn’t frozen just because of mortgage rates—it’s aging. In 1994, the U.S. was climbing the prime homebuying demographic curve: a surge of young adults entering the workforce, forming households, and driving demand. That engine…
Why are home sales at 1994 levels with 72 million more people? Simple: Demographics. In 1994 we had 1.6m adults NET joining the labor force. There were around 2.3m deaths or 1m homes coming to market due to death. Now, 300k are joining the labor force (likely less) and…
A Powell resignation under pressure wouldn’t be a defense of Fed independence—it would be its public capitulation. It would codify the idea that a central banker serves at the pleasure of the president, not by statutory mandate. That’s not second-best—that’s regime change. What…
If fiscal dominance creeps in, or political pressure mounts, the bond market will be the first to smell it—and right now, it’s starting to sniff something!
The more consumers are forced to spend on non-discretionary categories (insurance, rent, healthcare), the more it cannibalizes spending on high-multiplier sectors. You can’t inflate prices in half the basket without expecting real consumption to fall in the other half.
The risk isn’t that Powell is removed, but that the Fed is seen as a partisan tool either way—whether it resists or yields. If Powell stays, he may be viewed as an anchor dragging down credibility; if he goes, it’s a confirmation that independence was fragile all along. Either…
NEWS: @elerianm tells me Fed Chair Jerome Powell should resign in order to protect Fed independence, as the Trump administration’s criticism widens from the individual to the institution of the central bank. Our interview here on @axios axios.com/2025/07/22/jer…
China’s ability to redirect such a high share of exports highlights the limits of U.S. tariffs as a standalone tool. It reveals the adaptability of global supply chains and underscores that trade tensions can accelerate realignments rather than fully sever economic linkages. For…
I recalculated China's potential trade diversion to include all regions and control for double-counting. In Q2, China potentially found replacement markets for 82% of its lost exports to the United States on a product-by-product basis.
If a president removes a sitting chair without cause, the precedent is set: monetary policy becomes an extension of the White House. Markets wouldn’t take the Fed seriously on inflation, growth, or credibility because they’d know it’s just politics from here on out. Imagine…
Okun’s Law says that when the economy grows, joblessness tends to fall; when it shrinks, unemployment rises. Simple enough, right? If you chart GDP growth against the unemployment rate from 1948 to now, the pattern shows up clearly, especially during big swings in the business…
Bessent’s right to draw the line between policy execution and institutional overreach, but the real issue isn’t just about mission creep—it’s about political insulation eroding from the inside. The Fed’s expanding footprint into climate research, inequality, and now real estate…
Today in a CNBC interview, I called for a review of the Federal Reserve. It is my belief that the central bank should conduct an exhaustive internal review of its non-monetary policy operations. Significant mission creep and institutional growth have taken the Fed into areas that…
The results underscore a harsh truth about structural poverty: cash alone doesn’t rewrite the conditions that shape upward mobility. Even with $1K/month—enough to reduce financial stress—the absence of changes in educational outcomes or child well-being suggests that the binding…
A randomized experiment giving 1,000 parents an unconditional $1K/month over 3 years found essentially no differences in family outcomes; treated children showed no significant gains in well-being or education. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…
That contraction is a structural pivot. Post-COVID, construction—supercharged by fiscal stimulus, remote work reshuffling, and zero rates—became a core driver of fixed investment and regional economic activity. But as financing costs normalized and public-sector outlays…
Construction spending powered the economy forward post-covid. Its now pretty clearly contracting.
The housing boom-bust dynamic of the 2000s shows how runaway private residential construction spending from 2003 to 2006, fueled by ultra-loose monetary policy and subprime credit expansion, created a structural oversupply of homes. As construction peaked in early 2006, the…
If the Fed even hints at a September cut, it will likely be through subtle tweaks to the statement or Powell’s tone in the press conference—emphasizing “data dependence” or highlighting progress on inflation. But unless the July PCE or August CPI comes in much softer than…
China’s drawdown of U.S. Treasuries is a deliberate recalibration—not just portfolio rebalancing, but a defensive reorientation of reserves in a world where dollar assets now carry geopolitical risk. After the Russia freeze, reserve managers across the Global South learned that…