Edward Conard

For 25 yrs, trade deficits funded debt-fueled consumption, not business investment, addicting voters to government spending without higher taxes (or inflation). If tariffs reduce trade deficits, it could raise interest rates, worsening this imbalance. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

US tariffs may amplify deflation in China. As it seeks to replace falling US demand, China is ramping up exports to new markets at lower prices. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

Enormous government subsidies for EVs are reducing Chinese oil demand, which is expected to peak in 2027. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

Heckman et al, using two longitudinal data sets with a rich set of controls, find that participation in varsity athletics raises rates of high school and college attendance and graduation, as well as earnings, especially for disadvantaged students. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

Pettis asserts that in countries running chronic trade deficits, investment isn’t constrained by a lack of domestic saving, and that restricting capital inflows would not raise interest rates, while protecting domestic demand from currency appreciation. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

Interest rate parity suggests the USD is undervalued by 9.5%, Torsten Slok finds, but a richer model points to much milder undervaluation. Noting renewed interest in US assets, he expects the dollar to appreciate as the trade war fades. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

According to Bank of America internal data, median annual property insurance (auto and housing) payments have risen from 4% of household income to 5% over the past four years. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

A GS analysis finds as of Q2 Chinese wages grew 3.9% y/y, ~ 1pp lower than the official level. The Goldman estimates would be the lowest Chinese wage growth on record, excluding the pandemic period. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

A randomized experiment giving 1,000 parents an unconditional $1K/month over 3 years found essentially no differences in family outcomes; treated children showed no significant gains in well-being or education. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

Jonathan Sine argues China’s global manufacturing share is likely near its peak as growth has slowed from 1.5% to 0.5% btw 2010 and today due to deglobalization and intensified countermeasures against Chinese industrial policy. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

Rangvid argues that on top of the slowing of rental-based housing inflation, tariff-driven price increases have been delayed by firms buying ahead of tariffs and stockpiling, basing pricing on historic rather than replacement cost. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

Wage growth for the typical US worker has been steady at 1–1.5pp above the pre-pandemic level, paralleling inflation. Matt Klein argues Trump’s desired 300bp drop in the FFR to lower the costs of debt service would be "extraordinarily inflationary." edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

China’s state commercial banks added $47 billion to their net foreign asset position in June. Brad Setser argues “the preponderance of evidence suggests that China has been resisting pressure on its currency to appreciate” against the dollar. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

A fiscal package spearheaded by French premier Bayrou and intended to reduce the government's budget deficit from 5.8% of GDP to 4.6%, will likely result in a no confidence vote. Socialists “cannot accept” cuts and freezes to welfare programs. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

Kedrosky estimates capex related to datacenter buildout is ~ 20% of the railroad buildout in the 1880s and rising, though he cautions AI datacenter depreciation is high: “We aren’t building century-long infrastructure…datacenters are short-lived.” edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

The unemployment rate for recent male college graduates (22–27) has risen from

To increase China's fertility rate of 1, Beijing is planning a child subsidy of $500 a year for the first three years of a child’s life. The number of newborns will likely drop to

Between 2014 and 2024, rural areas in the EU lost 8.3% of its population due to falling birth rates and internal migration. The OECD warns this “creates political discontent.” edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

TSMC will attempt to accelerate construction of its second and third Arizona plants to meet American demand; the plants will enable TSMC to manufacture ~30% of its most advanced chips in Arizona. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

“Monthly core goods inflation in June 2025 was ~80bps above where it normally is at this time of year.” Robin Brooks notes that as pre-tariff inventories are depleted and the administration cracks down on transshipments, goods prices will rise. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

“Many countries now have vast ‘contingent liabilities’ - off-balance-sheet commitments that nonetheless represent an enormous potential outlay.” The U.S. government “is on the hook for contingent liabilities worth more than 5X the country’s GDP.” edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…