Gerard DiPippo

The US and China have a new framework to de-escalate. Whether that'll be durable is unclear. What is clear is that China can and will weaponize its export dominance. We discuss what the trade war teaches us about China's economy in our new @RANDCorporation Commentary. 1/

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It's 3 hours earlier here and it's sunny

I recalculated China's potential trade diversion to include all regions and control for double-counting. In Q2, China potentially found replacement markets for 82% of its lost exports to the United States on a product-by-product basis.

Like many, I've created a Substack. I will be mostly sharing reviews (and some comments) of the articles and books on China and foreign policy that I read. If you publish something, share it with me! I'll include it in the review pipeline. 🔗thoughtsonchina.substack.com/p/thoughts-on-…

Facing U.S. tariffs, China’s exports to the U.S. are down—while exports to Southeast Asia are up. Is that trade diversion and potential transshipment? My estimate: at most 34% of the increased PRC exports to SE Asia in Q2 could reflect trade diverted from the United States.

Went to Rose's Luxury for our anniversary. They've still got it.

Two fun facts about Phoenixville, PA (where my Mom grew up): 1) the Colonial movie theater was featured in "The Blob" (1958), for Steve McQueen fans 2) Barkley Elementary School is named after my great-grandfather Samuel K. Barkley, whose WW1 uniform I used to wear for Halloween

.@arkroeber's book is always what I recommend to those who want a primer on China's economy. Be sure to get the second edition though, which for some reason isn't the default on Amazon.

Investment remains important for China's economy, accounting for 41% of GDP in 2024. This year, investment is the primary factor weighing on overall GDP growth, and the slowdown in investment is largely due to the contraction in real estate.

“China is applying state support across the entire A.I. tech stack, from chips and data centers down to energy,” said Kyle Chan, an adjunct researcher at the RAND Corporation, a think tank. nytimes.com/2025/07/16/tec…

After 5 years of technical collaboration, we’re proud to announce a $500M agreement with @Apple to supply 🇺🇸-made rare earth magnets from 100% recycled materials Production at our Fort Worth facility, Independence, begins 2027 and will ultimately support hundreds of millions of…

China's property sector hasn't bottomed out. On my recent trip to China, pessimism about the real estate sector was striking. Contacts said that while T1 cities might stabilize, nationally, the process has *years* to go. IMHO, property remains the most critical macro story.

Here's some stuff Trump officials have said about Nvidia's China sales over the past few months Note that today's news doesn't mean the H20 controls are gone -- but rather that, per Nvidia, the US said it will approve licenses which are still required: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Went to Tari Trattoria last night, one of the many new places near Union Market. Promising start. Seafood-oriented Amalfi style food.

THIS IS A BIG DEAL. It's many industrial policy financing tools in one transaction: preferred equity purchases, warrants, lending, and a price floor. And a staggering amount of money. But a few initial thoughts. 🧵🧵🧵