Jack Salmon
@_JackSalmon_
Research Fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. Former Director of Policy Research at Philanthropy Roundtable.
In the past 24 days debt held by the public has grown by $436 billion. That is about the size of the entire economy of a state like Wisconsin or Missouri.
The cost of inaction on Social Security reform. The median worker will have to forgo 20 months of earnings to cover the shortfall. To keep the program solvent indefinitely, the median worker will have to forgo nearly 2.5 years of earnings. This is intergenerationally immoral
🚨Young workers could lose $110,000 in lifetime earnings just to keep Social Security solvent. We break it down in a new blog on the Debt Dispatch—the #1 Substack on fiscal policy, read by 4,000+ (and growing)🧵 👇 Full blog in the reply.
The difference between CBO and market consensus forecasts for treasury yields is the difference between paying $1.5 trillion on interest payments in 2030 versus $2 trillion. The cumulative difference over 5 years would likely exceed $2 trillion in extra interest payment costs.
New working paper with @Pat_Horan92 where we provide a new decomposition of the inflation surge. Using a New Keynesian model, we show most of the inflation was caused by aggregate demand shocks. We also do a @jasonfurman decomposition with similar results (1/3) @JohnHCochrane