CA ET Nerd
@earlyvotedata
Election Twitter Nerd, I do election analysis/predictions on my own for fun. History Buff.
2024 Total Predictions Summary: 11/8 Presidential: 17/17 Correct Calls. Got 312 Electoral Votes Swing State Miss Average: 1.05% Total State Miss Average: 1.13% Senate: 7/9 (waiting on AZ Senate for 10th) Calls Correct Swing State Miss Average: 1.08% Total State Miss Average:…
Just so everyone is clear on this: VA will be a Dem win (not dooming, it just is what it is). Sears needs to just run a hard campaign to help Rs down ballot. The race that Rs will be able to contend is NJ, but that still is a tough one in an off year election.
Republicans are panicking over the Virginia governor’s race - POLITICO apple.news/AQF5EAv1EQ0mTk…
🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥BREAKING: MAINE VOTER REGISTRATION FROM 2020 ➡️ NOW REQUEST FROM @JeremiahW2044 MAP ON LEFT 2020 MAP ON RIGHT IS NOW 2020 - Now 🔵 + 83,152 ➡️ 45,833 ✅ Androscoggin 🔵 + 1.23% ➡️ 0.46% ✅ Aroostook 🔴 + 0.79% ➡️ 1.49% ✅ Cumberland 🔵 + 2.01% ➡️ 2.10% ✅ Franklin…
Go Shiloh Go!
Breaking: 🚨 Lawsuit against Alameda County over voter registration records is now represented by Dr. John Eastman's firm, Constitutional Counsel Group, with lead counsel Alexander Haberbush🇺🇸 @DrJohnEastman @EagleEdMartin @HarmeetKDhillon
So the Missouri Freedom Caucus is calling on the Gov to move forward on redistricting in MO. They have 6 state senators and about 11 house members. The MO senate has 34 members and the house has 163. So it’s not a small contingent to say the least, let’s see what happens.
Breaking: The Missouri Freedom Caucus is calling on Governor Mike Kehoe to redraw the congressional lines
Enjoy the lawsuits Gavin!
Gavin Newsom says if If Texas Republicans go through with redistricting he will: 🔵 Call a special election 🔵 Set up a ballot initiative 🔵 Write a bill 🔵 Fight it out in court
It’s been real guys ;)
JUST IN - A mysterious intergalactic object could potentially be a “hostile” alien spacecraft that’s slated to attack our planet in November, according to a new study by scientists — NYP
This is a D pollster but I’ll be honest, I’m still skeptical of it. However a good result for Rodgers, I’m just not sure how accurate this pollster is. MI will be competitive but I still think favors Ds more in a midterm (as of right now).
Mike Rogers (R) leads in the 2026 Michigan US Senate Election, according to a (D)-funded poll. 2026 US Senate - Michigan 🟥Mike Rogers 48% 🟦Mallory McMorrow:44% 🟦 Haley Stevens 47% 🟥Mike Rogers 45% Normington Petts (D) | June 12-16 | 700 LV
Trump absolutely should be the face of the Midterm campaign. It makes no sense to not do that. 2024 was his “I told you so” campaign and 2026 will be his “get out for me one last time” campaign. Go Big or Go Home. Stick with the guy who got you here.
Having Trump be the face of the midterm campaign for the GOP has risks, but the upsides are probably too great to ignore. And, really, there probably is no alternative. Democrats will make the election about Trump anyway. Rs might as well turn it to their advantage best they can.
🚨CONSERVATIVES🚨 Today is the first day of early voting in the VA-11 Special Congressional Election. Stewart Whitson (R) is running to replace the late Gerry Connolly. This is a 2-1 Democrat district. Let’s take advantage of a low turnout election and FLIP this seat 🔵🔜🔴!
This story will never end. I guess now Trump can say “what were Democrats doing?”
Breaking: Ghislaine Maxwell gave Justice Dept info about ‘100 different people’ linked to Jeffrey Epstein
This is an all adult poll and it's from Gallup. A much better approach is to consider these in whole.
Trump's cratering in polls continues. Crushing new Gallup numbers: Overall approval: 37% On immigration: 38% On economy: 37% On trade: 36: Federal budget: 29% Overall approval among independents: 29% news.gallup.com/poll/692879/in…
FLORIDA INTERIM VOTER REGISTRATION CHANGES AS OF 7/25/2025 (Changes since July 19) # registered voters:13,582,514 (-3505) Dems:-2172 Reps:-22 Inds/3rd Parties:-1311 Rep plurality:from 1,322,558 to 1,324,708 Party reg %s:Dem 30.9%, Rep 40.6%, Inds 28.5% (1/3)
And would you look at this: NE 2 is suddenly no longer an issue. I think we need a @DataRepublican level analysis and detective work done on exactly why Rs everywhere have just given Ds free seats. I want to know where money is going to allow for such bad maps.
Nebraska 3R-0D map. 𝐀𝐥𝐥 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐞𝐞 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐬 𝐯𝐨𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐓𝐫𝐮𝐦𝐩 𝐛𝐲 𝟏𝟕%+. NE01 (Flood, R): R+13.4 ➡️ R+17.4 NE02 (Bacon, R): D+4.2 ➡️ R+17.3 NE03 (Smith, R): R+53.8 ➡️ R+27.3 Nebraska is admittedly challenging. Despite the GOP’s razor-thin…
Is this HIS platform?? Scott Walker has awoken all of a sudden…I wonder why?!
The 47th Governor of Wisconsin should focus on these things (not listed by order of importance): Elimination of state income tax Property tax freeze Balanced budgets with surpluses Education funding follows students, not systems Ban cell phones in schools Every graduate must…
I’d also had one caveat: depends on which states this is happening more in. But overall yes they will matter for the midterms. Independents fluctuate and are less locked in like Ds and Rs. The two main variables for 26 will be who wins indies and turnout by the parties.
Trump's drop w/ indies is his biggest danger sign. There seems to be no bottom. He owns the worst net approval w/ indies 6 months into a presidency (-29 pt), beating his own record. Wave adios to the GOP House majority if his net approval on inflation w/ indies (-45 pt!) holds
Time to set loose the Texas Rangers!
#Breaking: More than a dozen Texas Democrats have left the state for California and Illinois.
NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS POLL Trump Approval: The base is holding, but the middle isn’t moving. 🇺🇸 July 25, 2025 Trump Job Approval (-2.5 pts) 🟢 Approve: 47.4% 🔴 Disapprove: 49.9% ⚪️ Unsure: 2% – Trend: Net negative since April, holding steady into late July.…