(((Harry Enten)))

Let's start a cute dog thread... Whose got a pup photo they wanna share?

Jeez louise, Musk's 3rd party looks close to dead on arrival. He's suffered a 66 pt drop in his net favorable since entering the politics scene. At a -37 pt net fav now! With the GOP, he's down 55 pts in just 4 months to just a +6 pt net fav. 74% oppose a Musk-led 3rd party!

X isn't real life. Post-Epstein saga, Trump's approval with the GOP (~90%) may actually be slightly up. He's at/or near his apex w/ the GOP. How? Just 1 respondent said Epstein was the top problem facing the U.S. Cong Dems, OTOH, are at their worst standing with Dems ever.

Reality check: Dems are way behind their 2006 & 2018 pace on the generic ballot at this point in the cycle. Ahead by only 2 pt vs. 7 pt in 2006/2018 cycles. Seat-by-seat analysis actually reveals more GOP pickup opportunities than Dems! Very much unlike 2006 & 2018 at this pt.

Re: Epstein, Trump's election success has been dependent on conspiracy believers. Doesn't win 2024 without QAnon believers. Led 'em by 61 pt. Lost others by 16 pt. '24 primary: Led with 67% with those who said Biden's 2020 win wasnt legit. Was at 16% with those who said it was

The word to describe Trump's net approval on immigration "oof". Ranging from "horrible" (-27 pt) to "bad" (-7 pt), he's lost a ton of ground on what was his best issue. Could be a reason Trump's overall net approval among Hispanics has fallen: -2 pt in Feb to -26 pt in June.

The Trump admin's handling of the Epstein files has been a massive unforced error. Trump may wish it goes away, but Google searches for Epstein are up 1,200% this week. It's the top topic searched with Trump today. More have Googled Epstein this week than Grok or tariffs.

Climate activists have failed to make the case on climate change. Despite all the bad weather, just 40% of Americans are greatly worried about climate change. The same as in 2000. The % who worry about being a natural disaster victim has dropped from 38% in 2006 to 32% now.

What do you think of the TSA allowing shoes to be kept on at airport security? Polls say most will like it. -59% agreed airport security is too much of a hassle -Just 26% said removing shoes at security was a very effective security measure (ranked last on this measure)

Why does Trump delay tariffs? Voters feel about them the way they felt about New Coke: love em in theory & hate em in practice. Trump's disapproval on trade has rocketed up from 40% in January to 54% now. Last tariff war in April saw Trump's net approval drop 6 pts in 2 weeks.

A Musk-led 3rd party makes as much sense as selling sand in the desert. Such a 3rd party's base is calculated to be just 4% (i.e. voters who like Musk & dislike the GOP). 3rd parties have won just 0.2% of all races for Congress. Musk would most likely be a spoiler to the GOP.

On this July 4th, Democrats who are extremely/very proud to be American has fallen through the floor to a record low of 36%. Down from 80% in 2015. This is driven by Gen Z Dems of whom just 24% are proud to be American. Meanwhile, 92% of the GOP are proud to be American.

Re: Mamdani & Israel, Democrats are longer pro-Israeli when it comes to the Israeli/Palestinian conflict. Dems sympathized more with Israelis by 13 pt in 2017. Now, it's Palestinians by 43 pt. Among Dems under 50, it was Israelis by 14 pt in 2017. Now, Palestinians by 57 pt.

GOP voters love for Trump is record breaking. His strong approval (63%) is up like a rocket from term 1 (53%). It's higher than any GOP prez on record at this pt. 95%+ of those Trump endorses win primaries. When you mess with Trump, you go in the grinder to quote Good Burger.

3 adjectives for how Americans feel about the Big Beautiful Bill: awful, horrible, & to quote Sir Charles Barkley "terrible, terrible, terrible". Net favorables of the bill range from -19 pt to -29 pt in June polls. 49% say the bill will hurt their family. 23% say it'll help.

Mamdani's win is a political earthquake that should have the Democratic establishment nationally running scared. It comes as 62% of Dems are fed up with their party leaders & want them replaced. Also, a LOT more Democrats are liberal (55%) than once were (25% in 1994).

Amazing.

2001 was 24 years ago... That is a crazy sentence to me, but it is apparently true.

At least initially, Americans overall give the U.S. Airstrikes in Iran 2 thumbs down. CNN (-12 pts) & Ipsos (-9 pts) find negative net approvals for them. This is nearly 70 pts (!) worse than the net approval for the airstrikes on ISIS in 2014, which had a +58 pt net approval.

The verdict is in & the GOP/MAGA base is with Trump on the airstrikes on Iran. Overwhelming approval (76% on average). This is Donald Trump's Republican Party... Tucker Carlson's be darned.