Quantus Insights
@QuantusInsights
Election forecasting, political and economic analysis, and data-driven insights. Personal: @JasonCorley78 / https://quantus.substack.com/
NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS POLL: Trump Approval, Epstein files, 2026 midterms and more 🇺🇸 July 2025 Trump Job Approval 🟢 Approve: 48% (+1) 🔴 Disapprove: 50% (+1) ⚪️ Unsure: 2% –––––––––––––––––––––––––––– Trump Approval (College-Educated) 🟢 Approve: 47% 🔴 Disapprove: 50% ⚪️…
Yeah, it’s too early to roll out our models publicly but that doesn’t mean we haven’t been running them. 1. If no huge incumbent backlash, GOP has structural edge via demographics 2. Democrats need a Independent margins to break through 3. The net environment is likely R+1,…
You could call it coping, but you might also pause for a second and consider whether 2026 will continue the 2024 trend of revolting against the Democrats. I'm not saying it definitely will, just that there are *currently* signs pointing in that direction.
Gov. Newsom and Democratic legislative leaders are publicly discussing amending the state constitution to allow the state legislature to override the independent redistricting commission (IRC) for congressional seats. However, there are legal hurdles to overcome. California’s…
New 2026 House forecast (D+3 to D+5 wave): Without GOP redistricting: 🔵 Dems flip 9–13 GOP seats With redistricting factored in: 🔴 GOP claws back 4–6 seats ✅ Net Dem Gain: +3 to +9 📉 GOP House control drops to ~40% odds Democrat House majority (218-220) is absolutely in…
New 2026 House forecast (D+3 to D+5 wave): Without GOP redistricting: 🔵 Dems flip 9–13 GOP seats With redistricting factored in: 🔴 GOP claws back 4–6 seats ✅ Net Dem Gain: +3 to +9 📉 GOP House control drops to ~40% odds Democrat House majority (218-220) is absolutely in…
Interesting, we're not even at a point where we'll start publishing updates as we did in 2024 but our early midterm model (shared earlier for the fun of it) has it 59% for Democrats to take back the house. This is based on right now, of course. 📉 Average National Vote: D+0.8%…
Republicans Odds Of Winning The house in 2026 Surges Per @Kalshi 🔵 Democrats: 69% (-16) 🔴 Republicans: 31% (+16) (Compared to April 11)
No, this not what polling says.
Ladies and gentlemen, the Golden Age.
If you just look at 2024 voters in approval polls, Trump’s numbers are a lot tighter. Usually around -2 to even, sometimes above. Doesn’t tell the full story, but it says more about active voters than broad general polling among non-active voters.
Big part of the reason why Atlas’ polls seem so far off. Same effect is happening with Generic Ballot polls, Adults wildly more Democratic than LV’s.
Voter Registration Trends: July 2025 Update 1. New Jersey: Republicans gained ~9,700 voters across 20 counties. Democrats lost voters in 17 counties. Yet, Dems still lead by ~1M voters statewide. 2. National Shift (2024 → 2025): Dem share down in 26 states. GOP + independents…
June fundraising: GOP outpaced Dems by $5.4M in June 🔴 Republicans: $18.1 million 🔵 Democrats: $12.7 million Ballotpedia reports monthly totals for party committees through late May: Republicans raised $172 M, Democrats $146 M.
One could open themselves up to criticism by questioning their findings considering their successful track record in US elections. I'll just say we've polled this question a half dozen times and there's not a thing we recognize. In fact, it was a lot easier polling this question…
2026 Generic Ballot Poll 🔵 Democratic 51% 🔴 Republican 43% (+1) (Compared To Last Polled) AtlasIntel poll | 7/13-7/18
An interesting thread. But a thread that will come to nothing. It is a curious thing, however, that it is something Our Democracy crowd have never come to terms with.
🧵 Americans will finally learn the truth about how in 2016, intelligence was politicized and weaponized by the most powerful people in the Obama Administration to lay the groundwork for what was essentially a years-long coup against President @realDonaldTrump, subverting the…
Tomorrow ought to be a lively day.
President Trump—we are ready to move the court tomorrow to unseal the grand jury transcripts.