capacity
@capacitymarket8
"We are delaying the auction"
Wind+solar providing 40% of the Texas grid right now, keeping prices low, and power supply high. Diversification works!
Duke Energy says it has new performance requirements for large loads, including "mandated interruptible requirements for a specified period of time," in a filing yesterday to the NC Utilities Commission:
"The turbine market has been prone to boom-bust cycles. The most dramatic bust followed the dot-com bubble, when some experts predicted, incorrectly, that the internet would herald a new era of rising electricity demand" "Caution is warranted, not least because of uncertainty…
Mom can you pick me up, I don’t want to a part of PJM anymore
Why do forwards stay sleepy despite all AI demand? Most large loads bypass observable markets via private PPAs -IPPs hedge heavily (90%+ at $50-60/MWh) for earnings stability, not bearishness -Renewables flood supply short-term additions while tightness looms 2027-2030 once…
Everyone says AI data centers will be "baseload" and won't be flexible. I bet the total load factor of a majority of AI data centers will be less than 80%.
Winning the AI race won’t hinge on whether hyperscale data centers have uninterrupted power to train foundational models between 6-9am during polar vortexes
One of the weirder things to happen lately in the power markets: California has become a huge exporter during its peak season. Meanwhile the rest of the West has hollowed out its fossil capacity, leaning on Cali's battery/gas/renewable abundance. (thank you Cali ratepayers!)
Key to ERCOT’s success is energy only market, such that new generators aren’t studied for “deliverability” upgrades and can connect much faster and at lower cost albeit with potential for higher curtailment risk. ERCOT socializes reliability upgrades and some economic upgrades…
Excellent run-down of behind-the-meter generation serving AI data centers, via NGI: Data Centers Going Off-Grid With Natural Gas to ‘Find Any Way to Get Power’ "Behind-the-meter power generation was getting scant attention before billionaire Elon Musk installed natural gas…
(Most depressed guy you’ve ever met) I’m doin pretty good
The Mediterranean Sea is the hottest on record for this time of year.
"ERCOT officials predict the lowest chance of power supply emergencies in years... 'because of the contributions of new resources on the grid,' ERCOT CEO Vegas said... "Battery storage increased fourfold while the amount of solar generation doubled." dallasnews.com/business/energ…
Just Issued: FERC takes action to remove regulatory obstacles to speed up the construction of needed natural gas infrastructure projects in the United States. See details here ferc.gov/news-events/ne…
.@EIAgov looked at states that export & import electricity in the lower 48. - 10% of electric generation traded over state lines - VA imported 50.1M MWh in 2023 - PA exported 83.4M MWh in 2023 Regional markets keep the grid reliable & generate investment. bit.ly/3SIt8wv
Commercial and industrial electricity rates in California are out of control.
These factors are a helpful reminder that capacity is half "fundamentals" and half engineering & regulatory "accounting" for the attributes of this made-up product that is "capacity"