Hurricane Man
@HurricaneManWx
Chasing the tropics - My thoughts & opinions are mine alone & do not reflect on the advice given by the NHC. Owner of Gables Pest Control
Today marks the official commencement of the 2024 hurricane season. Please find my predictions below: Named Storms: 22 Hurricane: 10 Major Hurricane: 5 I anticipate this year will prioritize quality over quantity based on the favorable background conditions.…
August has historically produced significant storms even under less-than-ideal conditions. For example, Hurricane Andrew (1992) formed in late August and intensified rapidly despite moderate shear, driven by a transient low-level trough. A displaced ITCZ and lower tropospheric…
I'm kinda of the same opinion that August may be quiet in the Atlantic despite favorable MJO. Background stability is pretty hostile this year, and will suppress convection even if/when shear is more favorable. If we get Pacific MJO at peak (TBD but that's what current…
As of July 2025, the Atlantic hurricane season is already displaying early signs of increased activity, signaling the potential for a dynamic season ahead with SST ramping up. Professional meteorologists should refrain from prematurely dismissing the season's potential. Current…
Since the start of July, there have been a whopping 1200 reports of flooding across the United States. That's 75 percent above the month-to-date average.
The new ECMWF monthly forecast, valid for late August (18-24), shows above-average Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). 📈 Forecast Mean ACE: 1.2 📉 Climate Mean ACE: 1.0 Long-range signals continue to point toward an active peak to the Atlantic hurricane season.
The most activity was centered in the SW/Central Atlantic, with the year 2022 being an outlier, with lots of action closer to home.
2000, 2001, 2013, and 2022 are the most recent examples of this SST anomaly configuration. These Atlantic seasons observed near to below average TC activity in particular due to suppression of instability in the tropics which limited longevity and intensity of TCs.
Hurricane season is here. Are you prepared? ✅ Have an evacuation plan. ✅ Build a disaster kit (water, food, batteries). ✅ Stay informed with official alerts from @NWS & @NOAA.
On average, 86% of all named tropical systems in the Atlantic occur after August 2, and the first hurricane doesn't form until August 11. We have a long season to go. Prepare now, and learn more about how at weather.gov/safety/hurrica…
We are getting back to exceptional warming in the Atlantic.
My last post was a social experiment to see how many people actually comment and see my posts. 👀 lol
Hurricane Camille is the only hurricane in recorded history to make landfall as a Category 5 storm in the United States on two separate occasions, hitting the same region both times.
July 20, 2005: Hurricane Emily made a final landfall in northern Mexico as a Category 3. Storm surge destroyed most of Laguna Madre (a coastal fishing community), while heavy wind damage and inland flooding was reported around several other towns. No lives were lost. #wxhistory
Unfortunately, there will be more flooding events this month. Unusually high levels of moisture will continue to pulse over central and eastern states during the next two weeks.
As other forecasters have noted, a subtle signal is emerging in the MDR next week, coinciding with the passage of a Kelvin wave through the area.
Invest #93L's low-level center is inland over northern Florida this morning, as expected. The risk of tropical cyclone formation is tied to the mid-level trough and thunderstorm activity offshore over the Gulf. So far, there is no sign of significant organization, and models have…
Its the middle of July. 70% of activity happens after August 20th in the Atlantic.
DEFINITION OF DEAD.... NO ACTIVITY N THE EPAC NO ACTIVITY N THE ATLC...