Aaron Caldwell
@ExPhysStudent
Stats guy that has practicing safe science since 2017. PhD but always a student. #Rstats #OpenScience
🚨New SimplyAgree (early) release🚨 Proud to announce that SimplyAgree v0.2.0 is now available on GitHub and feedback is welcome/wanted. A few details below 🧵 aaroncaldwell.us/SimplyAgree/ #Rstats
I have never understood this argument. Sure, I get that some people don't like the property tax in general -- it's one of the most disliked taxes! But what does having a mortgage or not have to do with it? You were fine with the property tax up until you paid off your bank loan?
This Twitter thread will contain various ad hoc thoughts on this bombshell @METR_Evals paper as they occur to me. Thinking live out loud! 🧵
We ran a randomized controlled trial to see how much AI coding tools speed up experienced open-source developers. The results surprised us: Developers thought they were 20% faster with AI tools, but they were actually 19% slower when they had access to AI than when they didn't.
“A generation of scientific talent is at the brink of being lost to overseas competitors by the dismantling of the National Science Foundation, with unprecedented political interference at the agency jeopardizing the future of US industries and economic growth”
🎙️New podcast: The Replication Crisis Hits Sports Science. 72% of sports science studies could NOT be replicated. Effect sizes dropped 75%. Nearly 90% of researchers wouldn’t even share data. We explore bad incentives, a crisis of trust & how to fix it 🎧 podcasts.apple.com/za/podcast/mos…
Oddly, when he was a prominent Democrat promoting the same junk, our warnings about him were dismissed as critics being Shills For Big Pharma by progressives who agreed with everything he claimed. He's cray cray bananay.
We ran a randomized controlled trial to see how much AI coding tools speed up experienced open-source developers. The results surprised us: Developers thought they were 20% faster with AI tools, but they were actually 19% slower when they had access to AI than when they didn't.
Lots of MAHA talk at #WSJFood this week. Here's a quote from me in @WSJ “My concern is that they’re not interested in the science,” Hall said. “They’re interested in a preconceived narrative, and any science that complicates that narrative is viewed as problematic.”…
Selling federal land for $10billion to address the national debt is like selling the family cat for $28 because I have $100,000 in student loan debt and 'every little bit helps!' while meanwhile the Big Beautiful Bill is putting another $10k on my credit card.
New blog post: Checking Data and Code in Repositories with Papercheck daniellakens.blogspot.com/2025/06/checki… We show how our Papercheck tool can automatically check and list files in data repositories linked to in a scientific manuscript.
I'm pleased to announce the publication of two important papers in Sports Medicine on the first every large replication project in sport and exercise science. Read the full papers: link.springer.com/article/10.100… link.springer.com/article/10.100…
Nice work by Jennifer Murphy @ExPhysStudent @JoeWarne1 link.springer.com/article/10.100…
TEXAS SENATE JUST PASSED A 6-STORY SINGLE-STAIR BILL 29-2!!!! 🤯🤯🤯 Is TEXAS about to legalize single-stair apartment buildings statewide!? Huge doesn’t even begin to describe this.
We don't just need zoning reform to legalize apartments, we also need building code reform to make it so we can build beautiful, spacious, family-sized apartments that get plenty of natural light and finance reforms so they can actually get built.
5 stories 1 elevator 1 staircase 13 family-size homes, full of light, in a neighborhood-scale building in Seattle This is the spacious & accessible future building code reformers want
Nazi Germany surrendered in May 1945. For Americans, the Second World War would rage for three more months, until VJ Day in August. But for Russians and those influenced by them, "Victory Day" falls in May. Trump follows the Russian practice, not the American.
Thousands, and then millions, of American small businesses, including many iconic brands, will go bankrupt this year if the tariff policies on China don’t change. 🧵
The meta-analysis on the relationship between Fluoride and IQ by Taylor et al. (2025) that RFK Jr. has cited contains major methodological flaws and data integrity issues that we describe in the following pre-print (submitted to meta-psychology): osf.io/preprints/osf/…
BREAKING: Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. says he plans to tell CDC to stop recommending fluoride in drinking water. apnews.com/article/fluori…
Too many people take biomedical innovation for granted.
The high-water mark for wages in the US is not 1971 -- it's 2025. Average wages are 40% higher today -- adjusted for inflation -- than they were in 1971. There was a long period in which wages were stagnant -- about 1973 to 1995 -- coincidentally ending around NAFTA adoption
In 1971, the high water mark for working-class wages, manufacturing was 25% of the U.S. GDP. Today it's 10%. Everything Trump is doing with tariffs and immigration controls is to give the American worker a shot at the American Dream again after half a century of…
If you’ve ever complained about free speech on college campuses but aren’t upset about this, you’re not serious. Can’t even do mainstream economics while avoiding this list.
🚨BREAKING. From a program officer at the National Science Foundation, a list of keywords that can cause a grant to be pulled. I will be sharing screenshots of these keywords along with a decision tree. Please share widely. This is a crisis for academic freedom & science.
Mama says Lane Kiffin is so ornery cause he got all those transfers and no CFP appearances
Really exciting competitive game @CFBPlayoff 🧐. Great job!!