Michael Madowitz
@mikemadowitz
Principal Economist @RooseveltInst, @RooseveltFwd Used to love this place This = me+β(no_sleep)+ε
Early #JobsDay this Thursday! I usually don't pay much attention to the teenager stats, but weird trends in the economy makes this summer a time to watch teens' jobs numbers. Wrote this up in a preview post, but a 🧵for the TLDR crowd 1/
Teen summer jobs are more than just a seasonal tradition—they’re a window into the strength of the labor market. Ahead of jobs day, @mikemadowitz explores what the pace of youth hiring could tell us about the economy: rooseveltinstitute.org/blog/are-the-k…
Editors predicted a recession, why were economists so wrong?
I will just plug that I wrote an @opinion piece on April 10--when announced tariff rates were higher than they are now--arguing that while tariffs were a major headwind they wouldn't cause a recession.
It's perfect. They're literally standing in the FOMC boardroom inside the Eccles building.
“And this is where we adjust the interest rate.”
A one-time transfer creates a one-time surge in demand which leads to a one-time price level increase, which I have been assured we should not worry about. (in reality, we should worry about price increases, whether driven by tariffs or stimulus checks issued at full employment)
*TRUMP CONSIDERING STIMULUS CHECKS FOR LOW INCOME AMERICANS: PRESS POOL
The major issues to follow in this week’s economic data release (H/T @westcoastcustoms)
It’s a Hot Data Summer 🔥📊 Next week the Fed will make headlines, but all eyes should be on Thursday’s ECI and Friday’s #jobsreport. @mikemadowitz breaks down want to watch in next week’s data 👀 rooseveltinstitute.org/blog/hot-data-…
Yo dawg, I heard you like economic data, so I made next week Most interesting: ECI Most overhyped: FOMC Most covered: Jobsday Most confusing: GDP rooseveltinstitute.org/blog/hot-data-…
I am still in Seoul, where we are waiting to see what kind of deal Korea gets with the U.S. as its close rival Japan escapes with a lower tariff than feared. A preview: nytimes.com/2025/07/24/bus…
Win stupid games, win stupid prizes
🚨President Trump, in raw accomplishment, crushed his first 6 months. Yet poll after poll suggests many voters seem tired of the winning This paradox is unfolding in what could be his best chapter, before tariffs kick in or midterms kick off ⬇️Column by @axios @JimVandeHei & me
BLS's import price indices explicitly do not include tariffs. So this chart is actually making the exact opposite point: foreign producers have likely eaten very little if any of the cost of US tariffs in the form of lower prices. 1/2
On the reducing costs side: 💯 On the benefits side: 🗑️🔥
"DOGE, another area of investor concern in April, was nothing but a massive head fake (just as we predicted). And there is no appetite for fiscal austerity – the budget deficit is only getting bigger." @darioperkins @TS_Lombard
It was a real pleasure going on @DavidBeckworth's Macro Musings podcast to discuss my career, why I'm now too old for pickup basketball, and--most importantly--the rapid deterioration in the US fiscal outlook. Hear (and read) it here: mercatus.org/macro-musings/…
Something I’ve been watching this week is the appropriations process, especially given concerns with rescissions and other funding issues. One thing that has jumped out is funding cuts for Census. (1/7)
This is both predictable (economy smoking a pack of cigs a day) and quite dangerous. We may not get the aha moment we’re after, the economy is just getting meaningfully worse with no plans to make it better
The message from today's CPI # is that Trump's tariffs are starting to show up in prices. It's not dramatic yet, but it confirms the analysis of economists like Deloitte's Michael Wolf and Pantheon's @IanShepherdson, who told me it would be a gradual process. 1/2
Had a great time talking about abundance with @makosloff and @jeffhauser. Episode on Spotify, Apple, etc.
We need a theory for why politicians might find it optimal to position more centrist in a general election and more extreme in a 19 way primary
Another win for economic research: Real wages fall as deportations increase! This should change a lot of minds on this website 😜
Real average hourly earnings for all employees decrease 0.1% in June #BLSData bls.gov/news.release/a…
CPI rises 0.3% mo/mo overall and 0.2% core bringing yr/yr rates to 2.7% and 2.9%. The upturn albeit small of the past few months is discouraging.
This energy picture is wild: -Big spikes in domestic electricity/gas prices - more than offset by OPEC+ driving oil prices down
CPI for all items rises 0.3% in June; shelter up #BLSData #CPI bls.gov/news.release/a…
If you squint, you can find things in this report to worry about. Private-sector hiring slowed, esp. outside of health care. The labor force shrank. The number of people who have been out of work for more than six months rose. But the big picture here is continued resilience.
U.S. employers added 147,000 jobs in June and the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1 percent. Data: bls.gov/news.release/e… Full coverage: nytimes.com/live/2025/07/0…