Ben Casselman
@bencasselman
Econ reporter @nytimes. Formerly @fivethirtyeight @WSJ. Adjunct @newmarkjschool. He/him [email protected] Signal: bencasselman.96 Photo: Earl Wilson/NY
Damning chart showing the pass-through of tariffs to consumers, via @bencasselman.
When Trump announced sweeping tariffs in April, economists warned prices would jump and a recession was likely. Neither has happened -- yet. My latest story looks into why tariffs haven't hit the economic data yet, and why it's still too soon to conclude they won't.
Why have the #tariff impacts been delayed? the take from @MinneapolisFed minneapolisfed.org/article/2025/t…
When Trump announced sweeping tariffs in April, economists warned prices would jump and a recession was likely. Neither has happened -- yet. My latest story looks into why tariffs haven't hit the economic data yet, and why it's still too soon to conclude they won't.
New @nytimes op-ed by former Fed chairs Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen nytimes.com/2025/07/21/opi…
“Equal opportunities for unequal outcomes,” she said. “That is the American bargain.” This @priyakrishna piece is a searing portrait of the U.S. economy, posing as a piece about the food in airport lounges. nytimes.com/2025/07/21/din…
❤️ Waller is making an aggressive case but I would argue it's still a credible one. Rooted in macroeconomic data, analysis, and a reasonable assessment of risks. Labor markets are difficult to un-break.
Waller arrives at this out-of-consensus position (relative to his colleagues) because he thinks the Fed should look through tariffs and move rates closer to neutral. “We should not wait until the labor market deteriorates before we cut the policy rate.” wsj.com/economy/centra…
Fed governor Chris Waller officially backs a 25bp cut at the July meeting and says policy should be back to neutral "With inflation near target and the upside risks to inflation limited, we should not wait until the labor market deteriorates before we cut the policy rate"
Will Trump fire Powell? CAN Trump fire Powell? I don't know. But what I do know is that if Trump wants lower interest rates, firing the Fed chair is likely to backfire, resulting in *higher* borrowing costs for households and businesses. nytimes.com/2025/07/17/bus…
BREAKING: Pres. Trump showed off a draft of a letter firing Powell, during a meeting with roughly a dozen House Republicans on Tuesday night, polling them as to whether he should do it and indicating that he likely would. @maggieNYT @colbyLsmith nytimes.com/live/2025/07/1…
A bit more on this from us this evening: wsj.com/economy/labor-…