Ben Harris
@econ_harris
Brookings VP and Director of Economic Studies. Former Assistant Treasury Secretary and Chief Economist to VP Biden. Co-author of The Retirement Challenge.
We've massively expanded our tracking of Russia's shadow fleet. Since Dec. 2021, Greek shipping oligarchs sold Putin 35% of his shadow fleet, with other European owners another 14%. EU leaders looked the other way. How was this allowed to happen? With @econ_harris @BrookingsInst
Terrific @nytimes op-ed by @econJaredB this morning. It's not just that OBBBA skyrocketed the public debt, it's also the anti-growth strategies (e.g., ultra-high tariffs) that exacerbate the problem. nytimes.com/2025/07/09/opi…
Trump and the GOP Congress are handing future generations a gigantic bill. There could have been another way, writes @econ_harris. trib.al/bH5AwwB
We've done lots of work at @BrookingsInst mapping Russia's shadow fleet and evaluating the impact of sanctions. EU sanctions are highly effective at shutting down activity in these vessels. We'll update our analysis with today's welcome news. @econ_harris brookings.edu/articles/the-r…
It was a real pleasure going on @DavidBeckworth's Macro Musings podcast to discuss my career, why I'm now too old for pickup basketball, and--most importantly--the rapid deterioration in the US fiscal outlook. Hear (and read) it here: mercatus.org/macro-musings/…
I am very concerned about our rising national debt, especially after the "One, Big, Beautiful Bill " adds trillions to America's fiscal shortfall. See my recent piece in @BostonGlobe here: bostonglobe.com/2025/07/04/opi…
The US, EU and UK sanctioned lots of Russia's shadow fleet this year. The hit to Russia' seaborne oil exports is clear. These are down from 4 million barrels per day in H1 2024 to 3 million barrels per day in H1 2025. This is very good news. @econ_harris @LiamEcon @BrookingsInst
The UK and the EU unleashed a wave of shadow fleet sanctions in May. Something really big is happening now. Those sanctions knocked out a good chunk of the shadow fleet, so Russia is having to use more Western (Greek) oil tankers. Sanctions work! With @econ_harris @BrookingsInst
Big thanks to @ForeignPolicy and @KFJ_FP for this article on sanctioning Russia’s shadow fleet, which cites the @BrookingsInst paper @econ_harris and I recently wrote on the shadow fleet. Kudos to Europe for moving ahead! foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/11/eur…
As Western leaders grow impatient with Russia's invasion of Ukraine, attention is increasingly focused on disrupting Russia's oil trade. In a new paper, @econ_harris and @robin_j_brooks examine how regulators could escalate sanctions on Russia and its shadow fleet.…
Over the past year, @econ_harris and I built a comprehensive database on Russia’s shadow fleet of oil tankers. Today we’re releasing a @BrookingsInst paper summarizing our findings, with an urgent call for Europe to shut down these ships. brookings.edu/articles/incre…
On Thursday June 5th at 10:30 am, we discuss what's next for Russian sanctions. Come watch. brookings.edu/events/backing…
Great @BrookingsInst panel on Russia’s shadow fleet, including @jfriedlanderdc, @SalehaMohsin, @julianhinz & @thomaswright08. @econ_harris will kick things off with a new joint paper on the shadow fleet. brookings.edu/events/backing…
Where did all those imports go in Q1? An update. The gap between surging imports and subdued inventories was even larger based on Census Bureau's March wholesale inventories. Bureau of Economic Analysis made an adjustment boosting March inventories, eliminating part of the…
In Q1, goods imports rose $324B (real, annualized) but goods consumption rose only $7 B, equipment investment $69B and (chg in) private inventories $131 B. I'm sure everything within the NIPAs adds up. Still, feels like some expenditure offset to imports is being undercounted.
We've built a comprehensive database of Russia's shadow fleet, including how many oil tankers in that fleet are now sanctioned. Of the 343 ships we track, 264 are now sanctioned. 79 are still unsanctioned. The EU in particular needs to sanction more ships. With @econ_harris
ICYMI, I recently discussed the future of Trump’s tariffs on @BloombergTV "Balance of Power," arguing that the tariff pause reflected the power of the bond market as a referee on policy. Watch here: bloomberg.com/news/videos/20…
TODAY @ 10 AM ET: Join Brookings as it convenes a panel of trade and tariff experts to study the Trump administration's "reciprocal tariffs" plan. @econ_harris will provide opening remarks before the panel discussion, and an audience Q&A will follow. brookings.edu/events/trumps-…
This morning (Thursday, 10 am) Brookings is hosting a panel of distinguished experts to discuss Trump's reciprocal tariffs. Come listen. brookings.edu/events/trumps-…
I can confirm I've replicated the CEA calculation for the so-called "tariffs charged to the USA" on these charts. It is the Census FT900 trade data, exhibit 4, for year 2024, and the formula is MAX(10%,(imports-exports)/imports) per-country on a customs basis.
Breaking down the biggest tariff increase since 1930, which Trump announced this afternoon. (Also likely the largest tax increase of *any kind* in modern U.S. history). 1. Most US imports, with a number of exceptions that I'll come to, will be subject to *substantial* new…