Mark G. Sheppard

🚨 NEW INTERACTIVE RECESSION TOOL 🚨 The #SahmRule is probably one of the best tools we have to indicating a recession. I extend the basic logic laid out by @Claudia_Sahm, building off other work by @PMichaillat and Saez, to create an interactive tool.

The beauty of @OppInsights is that the conclusion of the research is clear and communicated to the public: success depends on many factors, but where you’re from plays a pivotal role—economic mobility can vary dramatically from one region to another. #EconTwitter #EconX

An international call for action just got louder: Today, 7 Nobel Laureates have issued a powerful call for a minimum tax on the ultra-wealthy in Le Monde Here’s a quick breakdown of the debate—and where things stand globally lemonde.fr/en/opinion/art… 🧵

I’m here for Stanford slander. Go bears.

Research by @MortenStostad & Lobeck finds most say rising inequality fuels crime, corruption, polarization, unrest & unemployment — while narrowing it boosts trust, well‑being, democracy, public services, growth  &  innovation. #EconTwitter

Final CBO score of the "big beautiful bill" is out Biggest Medicaid cuts ever - in fact, 4 times the size of the previous biggest; $894-$990 bn Kicks 10 million off health insurance Biggest SNAP cuts ever, $187 bn Still increases deficit by $3.4 trillion from huge tax cuts

Had fun building this 5‑variable data viz—ambitious but hopefully I kept it clean! I'm a big fan of the #GreatGatsbyCurve. Key takeaway: the US is more unequal, less economically mobile, with lower median income & taxes vs. peers—because gains stay at the top. #econtwitter #EconX

Want global macro insights w/o all the politics? We use machine learning & alternative data to forecast inflation and spot trends early so you know what's coming before it hits the news (and with the occasional meme) Subscribe to @turnleafan Insights👇substack.com/@turnleafinsig…

For all the headlines, nothing changed.

The American economy has become incredibly scammy, in a way official statistics likely don’t quite capture. #EconTwitter

The border expenditure is like ~3% of the expense, but is foregrounded in the administration’s marketing because #immigration polls better than “more than $4T in permanent tax cuts for the wealthy, financed mostly by cuts to the programs like health insurance for poor kids.”

Now officially published: u* = √uv: The Full-Employment Rate of Unemployment in the United States muse.jhu.edu/article/964373

The three biggest hps for stable training in everything are lr, bs, and beta2. We’ve built up good intuitions on how to tune them over time, but this lays it all out analytically and convincingly. this is definitely my new handbook for training big models on small gpus.

Policy economists in the U.S. should be chiefly concerned with how —in the span of 2 generations— we let an economy devolve into nearly total unaffordability. Until then I’m going to boo every paper about the indentification strategy of retweeting job market papers. #econtwitter

I too long for more light conversation but it’s impossible to have lighter conversations when there’s real problems. And part of how we got here is that academics cared too much about Wordle and not nearly enough about solutions to non-academic problems.

The "No Tax On Tips" provision of the Republican budget bill won't help many tipped workers (and it expires). Couple that with the bill's cuts to Medicaid/food assistance, and tipped workers fall even further behind. What we should really do is get rid of the subminimum wage.

A cancer lab having to start a GoFundMe is insane. This is Trump’s America — where billionaires get tax cuts and researchers beg for funding.

Thank you to everyone for your energy and enthusiasm in joining this adventure with me so far!

it was actually so easy to have a "working class tax cut" well-off people would like too: a couple/household earning say $336,000 are taxed at the 35% rate for $$ above $250k. but would've also further benefit from low(er) rates on the income that falls within the lower brackets!