Pascal Michaillat
@pmichaillat
Professor of economics at UC Santa Cruz
Bumping because it took me longer than I hoped it would to find to add to my course page for my students: Pascal Michaillat's templates are just beautiful, and a wonderful thing to share on his page. Think he's left twitter/x, understandably. pascalmichaillat.org/design/
A new algorithm for detecting US recessions in real time, from @pmichaillat nber.org/papers/w34015
The value of the full-employment rate of unemployment (FERU) in the US is updated monthly on this automated business cycle dashboard: pascalmichaillat.org/dashboard/#us-… The current value of the FERU is 4.33%.
Updated my website using Prof Pascal's template- github.com/pmichaillat/hu…
Great honor to discuss and write a comment about Michaillat and Saez' fascinating paper "u* = √uv: The full-employment rate of unemployment in the United States" brookings.edu/articles/u-%e2…
The paper is on arXiv too now: arxiv.org/abs/2506.09664
New method to detect US recessions in real time:
The automated business cycle dashboard has just updated with May 2025 numbers: pascalmichaillat.org/dashboard/ Unemployment & vacancy rates creep up. The FERU creeps up to 4.3%. The US labor market remains around full employment. Recession risk remains positive but low.
Paper here: academic.oup.com/qje/article/13…
Few have since explored it since with the exception of Michaillat and Saez (2015) where they bring the Barro and Grossman (1971) disequilibrium approach to search/matching models: "Demand, Idle Time, and Unemployment"