Jennifer Kavanagh
@jekavanagh
Senior Fellow & Director of Military Analysis @Defpriorities. Formerly @CarnegieEndow @RANDCorporation. Tweets on U.S. defense policy & military strategy.
The past 2 weeks underscored the risks that come w/ having U.S. military forces in the ME. They played little role in the U.S. strike on Iran, but became a costly vulnerability when Iran retaliated. @dandcaldwell & I argue in @washingtonpost that it's time to bring them home.
It is becoming an increasingly unavoidable and difficult reality that Ukraine is going to have shorten their lines in key areas of the battle space - lest they invite a catastrophic Russian breakthrough. The issue isn’t lack of weapons - it’s manpower. You can’t have single,…
Putin has a clear advantage on the battlefield, and the new aid arrangement in which Europe will buy U.S. weapons to send to Ukraine is unlikely to change this. @jekavanagh argues in @RStatecraft. responsiblestatecraft.org/trump-50-day-d…
Pentagon shifts $200 million from barracks, schools, facilities to border wall -- from @PattyNieberg taskandpurpose.com/news/dod-200-m…
Wake me up when it's 500,000. taipeitimes.com/News/front/arc…
'Zelensky’s latest decision is simply a reminder that the “Ukraine as democracy” narrative was always a myth.' @jekavanagh 👇 buff.ly/J0xXUtn
A revised U.S. posture in Asia should be shaped by three principles, @dandcaldwell and @jekavanagh write. 1. Shift to allies and partners in the region primary responsibility for their own security 2. Exploit the advantages of defensive warfare, especially those associated with…
Adding this from @jekavanagh … x.com/jekavanagh/sta…
Further reporting that confirms deflation ... in this case, that Moscow is not taking any of this seriously ... linkedin.com/posts/nikolas-…
There's no military justification for this. And given that both US and UK are declining to comment on it, it's hard to see any signaling or political justification, either.
U.S. nuclear weapons have reportedly returned to British soil, with multiple sources indicating that a number of B61-12 thermonuclear gravity bombs were transferred this week to RAF Lakenheath in Suffolk. ukdefencejournal.org.uk/us-nukes-deplo…
3 warped assumptions: 1) if Trump team isn't consulting "nat'l security elite" (those responsible for years of failed policy) they are "doing it wrong" 🤦♀️ 2) if Trump team isn't consulting the elite they aren't talking to any experts 🫤 3) Consulting w/elite is best done at ASF
Those who are losing and/or out of power ask for debates and to be consulted. Those who are winning and/or in power decline. I write this as someone normally losing and always out of power.
God grant me the confidence of a "national security elite" upset they're not being consulted by the current administration.
.@defpriorities A new war next door? The case against U.S. military strikes in #Mexico - Thanks @AileenTTeague @DanDePetris @ColinPClarke @jekavanagh , thoughtful discussion, great insights. defensepriorities.org/events/a-new-w…
🚨 Trump’s Foreign Policy in 3 Words: Deals. Tariffs. Ultimatums. I break down the 50-day pause on Russia with guest Jennifer Kavanagh @jekavanagh of @defpriorities on today's show. Bottom line, Trumps 'big announcement' this past Monday is not likely to produce anything of…
There is less to Trump's 50-day ultimatum than meets the eye, I argue for @RStatecraft. The economic threats aren't credible & the military commitments are more show than substance. The deadline may hurt Trump most of all, limiting his political options. responsiblestatecraft.org/trump-50-day-d…
(Reuters) - A drone attack struck an oilfield operated by U.S. company Hunt Oil in the Iraqi Kurdish city of Dohuk on Wednesday, security sources said. It was the latest in a series of attacks on oilfields in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region in recent days. It also marked…
Trump's got a new plan to aid Ukraine & @NewsHour had Kim Kagan @TheStudyofWar & me back on the show to debate its pros & cons. I argued the new plan is more show than substance & won't get enough weapons to Ukraine to change the military balance or end the war more quickly.
In announcing a new weapons package for Ukraine and a 50-day deadline for Russia to agree to a ceasefire, President Trump reversed his previous stance toward Russia’s invasion. But will the new weapons have the intended effect, or does this new deadline give Russian President…
In announcing a new weapons package for Ukraine and a 50-day deadline for Russia to agree to a ceasefire, President Trump reversed his previous stance toward Russia’s invasion. But will the new weapons have the intended effect, or does this new deadline give Russian President…
"More aid to Ukraine is unlikely to shift the military balance in a major way, and Putin is prepared to weather the costs of additional sanctions," DEFP Director of Military Analysis @jekavanagh tells @julianbarnes of @nytimes. nytimes.com/2025/07/14/us/…
“Trump’s deadline is likely to make his own life more difficult, limiting his future flexibility, putting the settlement he craves farther out of reach, and forcing him to take steps that harm rather than advance U.S. interests.” @jekavanagh @RStatecraft responsiblestatecraft.org/trump-50-day-d…
New must read @jekavanagh on Trump's 'major announcement' yesterday and his threat of a 50-day deadline against Putin: "If Trump’s ability to force Putin to the table using economic sticks is limited, then his military leverage is even smaller." responsiblestatecraft.org/trump-50-day-d…