Nikolas Gvosdev

Link to the @CFTNI discussion with Jae Ku and @1796farewell on #Russia - #DPRK relations … youtu.be/4WVSzyGpCjY?si…

Adding this @kenmoriyasu article to complement @adamlashinsky piece ... x.com/kenmoriyasu/st…

Europe's self-image, based mainly on fantasies of collective grandeur, gets a reality check: one day by China, the next day by America. Russia is simply ignoring Europe and only wants to deal with the US. Welcome to the new geopolitical world.

A hemispheric geo-economic strategy remains feasible … linkedin.com/posts/nikolas-…

If deal is implemented completes process of decoupling Europe from Russian energy in favor of coupling to the U.S., a longstanding goal of the U.S. (and something Trump was urging in first term).

Will Ukraine benefit from U.S.-EU deal? Europeans to invest in U.S. military firms, buy more weapons and U.S. LNG.

It appears there is a US-EU deal involving 15% tariffs on most goods including Autos (like Japan), tho other sectoral tariffs still TBD including pharma Am looking forward to the details, exclusions(pharma for now?) and exemptions and divergence in how its defined by both sides

The $750 billion in energy purchases and $600 billion in U.S. industrial investment pledges are geoeconomic concessions. These are not just economic, but strategic alignment gestures - forced in exchange for reduced pressure. The EU is thus paying politically and economically to…

This week's @asiatimesonline #GRRM (Global Risk-Reward Monitor) has a telling overarching theme: "weak hands at the helm" (especially in Japan, Germany and perhaps now Ukraine as well).

I get depressed reading @20committee reports because increasingly it is clear that the pathologies we saw in Eastern European politics in the 90's and 00's have crossed the Atlantic.

Fact sheet for US-Japan deal is out. As @petereharrell notes it emphasizes the new investment Japan will make in and “directed” by the US. It also includes extensive purchase agreements (food, fertilizer, bioethanol, also planes and defense equipment. whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/20…

Great discussion for #LeadershipRhodeIsland at @NavalWarCollege / @nwc__foundation on what’s happening in different regions of the world—from drugs to commodities, conflict to energy--and how what happens “over there” has a #doorstep impact for Rhode Island.

The experience with Iran and Russia makes it abundantly clear: while oil sanctions are good for restructuring oil flows around geopolitical relationships, they fall short on changing state behavior. Lessons for US policy on decoupling from China. My latest for @ForeignPolicy

The core message of the White House’s AI Action Plan is clear: Build AI infrastructure and build more of it. And to stay ahead, the U.S. must export its full AI stack, ensuring global systems are anchored on American infrastructure. ai.gov/action-plan

China’s rare earths exports to the US increased 660% in June from May reflecting their 90-day truce, though volumes are still below what China was exporting before imposing partial bans in April.

And here is the link to the full discussion: youtube.com/watch?v=4WVSzy…

Adding this from @jekavanagh … x.com/jekavanagh/sta…