Eric Lonergan
@ericlonners
Supercharge Me: Net Zero Faster https://amzn.eu/d/gHkbyIK
Quick explainer: the world produces a certain amount of goods, countries with trade deficits consume more of the world’s production. That’s because they’re being ripped off.
From the POV of information theory, there are only bits and the capacity to flip a bit (energy). The rest is commentary.
My latest writeup on But This Time It's Different: SpaceX just funneled $2 B of its rocket‑fuel cash into xAI’s Grok (almost half of its $5 B! raise). A national‑security‑contract rocket co. bankrolling an unproven chatbot? We already know the FedPut. Now, meet the #MuskPut !
Actually sacking Powell would be messy and counterproductive. Talking about it ad nauseam is highly effective click bait.
This really helps address national problems.
We at Reform serve notice to wind and solar developers and investors Invest at your own political peril telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/…
Also, unintended consequences: UK process results is terrible fiscal myopia.
"..not mentioning that those surpluses led to the end-of-boom in 2000 and the recession of 2001 – a phenomenon once known to economists as 'fiscal drag'." 7/
Important read. These are choices.
Abolish fiscal rules and the agencies that enforce them? Galbraith makes the case. (This is for you too, 🇬🇧) "The budget process cultivates and perpetuates the idea that smaller deficits are better than large ones..." 1/
"..not mentioning that those surpluses led to the end-of-boom in 2000 and the recession of 2001 – a phenomenon once known to economists as 'fiscal drag'." 7/
Great post from @SBenzell on AI and the fiscal outlook. Required reading. My hunch, interest rates would fall first - a lot - but let’s see! They rose during the internet boom. open.substack.com/pub/empiricraf…
Unemployment up, rates down
Good for productivity. Bad for new grads? "Vacancies in AI-exposed roles dropped 38% in the three months to May compared with the same period in 2022, almost twice the decline seen elsewhere." bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
Good for productivity. Bad for new grads? "Vacancies in AI-exposed roles dropped 38% in the three months to May compared with the same period in 2022, almost twice the decline seen elsewhere." bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
So interest rates going to zero? And why are we creating net jobs now?
80% of jobs will disappear by 2030. Fortune 500 will be next. This is Vinod Khosla’s latest prediction - the investor who predicted the rise of Google, OpenAI, and DoorDash. Here's what he said next: 🧵
Why bother voting? And what’s the point in democracy, anyway?! @ericlonners and I shoot the shit, discussing in the latest dispatch of But This Time It’s Different (link ⬇️):
The other annoying dimension is that trade deals simply don’t matter v much.
It also goes uncommented that in June gilts had been the best performing of major bond markets, likely biasing beliefs and ‘positioning’.
I remain amazed how political commentary on the bond market still winds me up, because it so often treats that market like a political actor rather than the market that it actually is. So I've just read, from one of the best political commentators in the UK, that 1/4
I remain amazed how political commentary on the bond market still winds me up, because it so often treats that market like a political actor rather than the market that it actually is. So I've just read, from one of the best political commentators in the UK, that 1/4
And probably wouldn’t matter that much either …
try not to think about how much time we, as an industry, have spent in 2025 researching and discussing policies that either never happen or are immediately reversed...
I hadn’t realised Bessent could be on the FOMC for 14 years. He won’t do as he’s told. That is when he breaks ranks with Trump.
Delighted to have @MkBlyth join me on the podcast this week to discuss his new book, 𝑰𝒏𝒇𝒍𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏: 𝒂 𝑮𝒖𝒊𝒅𝒆 𝒇𝒐𝒓 𝑳𝒐𝒔𝒆𝒓𝒔 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑼𝒔𝒆𝒓𝒔. We had a great conversation on the political economy of inflation and the challenges that lie ahead for policymakers. We…