Dario Perkins
@darioperkins
MD Global Macro @TS_Lombard, macro themes/research/risks, central-bank specialist, started career at HM Treasury in late 90s, ex ABN AMRO, AC Milan fan
NEW BLOG: How to be a central banker The 10 rules of central banking. (this time with a free link that actually works without signups etc) hub.tslombard.com/download/PUBPE…
Spent my career poking fun at central bankers (see pinned tweet) but now things are so bad I actually have to defend them 🤣
There is a basic contradiction between populism and independent central banks. This is just the start
PODCAST TIME AGAIN. Let me spell this one out, because there is still some confusion out there: IF TRUMP FIRES POWELL... THAT AINT BULLISH Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/if-… Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/1pbjmC…
"There are good reasons to expect weaker corporate earnings in the months ahead. Tariffs will either squeeze margins or raise prices (reducing sales); either way, there is a good chance that profits will go down." @darioperkins
If AC Milan asked me to play striker next season, I'd probably say yes too. Ain't gonna win us the league title though...
WALLER: IF PRESIDENT ASKED ME TO DO FED CHAIR JOB I'D SAY YES
The other thing about this chart is that Trump regretted appointing Powell almost immediately... that experience is sure to weigh on his next chair appointment. Don't take any chances this time!
Trump is a real estate developer and promoter. Good credit quality, collateral, and performance = lower rates in his world. US is the tiffany credit and nominally performing well, thus he should be rewarded with low rates.
Can someone explain why rates that low are something to be "deserved"....?
TRUMP: WE DESERVE TO BE AT 1%
liked @FerroTV question to Bessent about whether he could be "player-manager" as Fed chair .. a coach who also plays on the team. But the analogy only works if its a coach who plays on the OPPOSITION team 🤣
"DOGE, another area of investor concern in April, was nothing but a massive head fake (just as we predicted). And there is no appetite for fiscal austerity – the budget deficit is only getting bigger." @darioperkins @TS_Lombard
Another great podcast episode from the TS Lombard macro team🎙️ Tune in @TS_Lombard
PODCAST: IF TRUMP FIRES POWELL... How would markets react? @darioperkins @freyabeamish Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/1pbjmC… Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/if-…
The only answer I'll accept is that they share a balance sheet with the govt... 😉
Why do people on here say CB independence is a myth..? Has the Fed cut rates 300bps yet?
Why do people on here say CB independence is a myth..? Has the Fed cut rates 300bps yet?
PODCAST: IF TRUMP FIRES POWELL... How would markets react? @darioperkins @freyabeamish Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/1pbjmC… Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/if-…
It is true that global goods prices had inflected higher before the tariffs. That's what the YoY data show, and they all move with the global IP cycle. Tariff effects are small, but they are starting to appear in MoM data. That's the the thing to watch...
A lot of people really want to read their preferred political narrative into the inflation data, but they remain stubbornly unaffected by tariffs. The same goods categories that had a modest bounce in June in the US also bounced across North America and the UK. Not tariff driven.
Can see I'm going to be updating this every day...
that escalated quickly