Andrey Baklitskiy
@baklitskiy
Nukes at @UNIDIR. ex @MGIMO_en, @CSIS, @DipacademyMID, @PIR_Center. Views own, RT/❤️ ≠ endorsement
It took us a while, but I think we got pretty interesting insights about where the P5 see nuclear risks coming from and what can be done about them. Check out our report
How do nuclear weapon States perceive nuclear risks? And what opportunities exist to reduce them? ☢️ This new report explores the contrasting visions, challenges ahead and areas of convergence identified during the UNIDIR nuclear risk retreat. Read more👉unidir.org/RiskPerception
Iran produced >300 kg of uranium metal at the Jaber Ibn Hayan Multipurpose Laboratory (JHL) between 1995-2000. There is no reason to think the Isfahan UCF housed all the deconversion equipment that Iran might have available to make uranium metal.
In summary... Yes, it's true it would take years for Iran to rebuild a nuclear program of its previous scale. But--also yes!--Iran could build the bomb much faster—in a year or less in my assessment. (11/11) politico.com/news/magazine/…
Russia designated Rosa-Luxemburg-Stiftung @rosaluxglobal an "undesirable organization," making it a civil and criminal offence for Russian citizens to participate in the work of the foundation
Secretary-General Announces Members of Independent Scientific Panel on Effects of Nuclear War: 21 members, all P5 nationals are represented press.un.org/en/2025/dc3900…
People responsible for US participation in CEND and IPNDV among other things
The entire State Dept office of multilateral nuclear affairs was dismissed last week, Alexandra Bell tells @CFR_org. “These were people responsible for efforts to ban explosive nuclear testing, the production of weapons grade material, people working on nuclear disarmament…
Looking forward to speaking here tonight, join us!
Join Pugwash at a livestreamed event today, 8 July at 6pm (London) / 7pm CEST / 1pm EDT "70th Anniversary of the Russell-Einstein Manifesto" youtube.com/live/jhWoTkafc…
Russia designates Yale University an “undesirable organization” making it a criminal offense for Russian citizens to engage in its activities.
The administration has argued that the destruction of Iran's uranium metal production lines at Isfahan will set its nuclear-weapon program back by "years." At Arms Control Wonk, I argue it may not even set Tehran back by months. Link in next post.
As was very well put by @BrewerEricM & @CoreyAH on Strategic Simplicity pod with @pranayrvaddi, for the last 20 years Iran’s strategy was to keep its program shiny & transparent & use it as deterrence. This clearly hasn’t worked. Tehran will have to come up with something new now
Me a few days ago
We are bringing back our🌠Youth Video Competition🌠 for the 2025 Outer Space Security Conference! This is a chance for young voices to share their vision for space security with the multilateral community. Winners will be flown to Geneva to attend #OS25! 📆 Apply by July 18!
Imagine it’s 2050 and you’re working on outer space security. What challenge are you facing and how are you solving it? 🎥 Share your vision in a video and take part in the Outer Space Security Conference 2025 Youth Video Competition by 18 July! #OS25 🔗 unidir.org/OS25YouthVideo
I need help with a question. I have an empty ICBM silo that I hope to use again some day. Can I open the silo cover and keep it open for a few days? The hot launch silos should be sturdy enough to take this. Are they? Examples are appreciated. Thanks!
Some good points here
First blog post in a series about the 12-Day War, this first one on Iranian breakout, and why I think people are a little too eager to assume the worst on Iranian breakout speed: horsdoeuvresofbattle.blog/2025/06/27/the…
Also, there was more than a week between Israeli strike against Natanz and US strike against Fordow, Iran had plenty of time to enrich enough uranium to 90% for one bomb if it wanted
A good thread by Jeffrey. I would only add that 60% HEU is already a reasonable weapon material. See the critical mass graph (from an IPFM report 2010). The only true threshold is 6% or so. Even 20% LEU can be used in an explosive device (albeit a very big one).
Interesting - it appears that @CTBTO picked up the MOP explosions.
If it is of your interest, I took 10min for that out of curiosity. This is the view of a seismometer at GNI in Armenia (closest one) with data accessible in Open Access I might be wrong but it looks at first sight that 'Yes", it was visible. Pretty well visible even.
Thread
Why am I so unimpressed by these strikes? Israel and the US have failed to target significant elements of Iran's nuclear materials and production infrastructure. RISING LION and MIDNIGHT HAMMER are tactically brilliant, but may turn out to be strategic failures. 🧵 1/17
Does this count as an irresponsible nuclear rhetoric or are we good here?
Heinrich on Iran: An article stated that Trump was not considering a tactical nuke— that it was not one of the options that was presented to him. I was just told by a top official here that none of that report is true— that none of the options are off the table
Поговорили об иранской ядерной программе и ущербе от израильских ударов с Марианной Беленькой на Первом радио youtu.be/JZX-GMJeIF4?si…
This will be webcast, by the way. It will be interesting - as I understand it, the commission was able to get the Pentagon to tell them something about targeting. It won't be in the public report, I guess, but the results should reflect it.
Public Report Release | Independent Study on Potential Environmental Effects of Nuclear War nationalacademies.org/event/45265_06…
Getting strong @ArmsControlWonk 2020 Commission Report vibes here
Поговорил с @bbcrussian о ситуации вокруг ядерной программы Ирана youtu.be/Pp6n60txgPY