Pavel Podvig
@russianforces
Russian nuclear forces, nuclear arms control, disarmament, verification. Strictly personal views here. All coordinates are at http://russianforces.org/podvig
It's a crime, a mistake, stupidity and treason, all wrapped in one. My heart is with Ukrainians and with those in Russia who stands against this war
I'm still going trough old bookmarks. A lot of good stuff there...
If arms control is so important, why don't we talk enough about this?? treaties.un.org/Pages/showDeta…
Note the date - 23 March 2022, one month into the invasion. In 2025, the referendum in Donbas is no longer an option (and the fate of Kherson and Zaporizhzhie is in question). Other than that, it's square one. [This is from old bookmarks.]
Neutralization of Ukraine under international guarantees, referendum in the Donbas, loss of Crimea may be the elements of a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia. It rewards the agression, would say some, but I don’t see any other way to put a quick end to the slaughter.
I must say a lot of ideas that shaped US decision-making were non-academic abstractions. (The window of vulnerability, for example)
"These ideas weren’t academic abstractions; they fundamentally shaped US decision-making during the Cold War, with enormous implications for nuclear strategy today. Yet they’ve largely disappeared from view, just when we need them most." mwi.westpoint.edu/the-false-deba…
“I believe we have proven every element of the physics that we can work,” Guetlein said. really means... "I have a defense contractor who says with enough money, anything is possible."
Guetlein Talks Golden Dome Priorities, Says Missile Interceptors are Feasible airandspaceforces.com/guetlein-first…
I'm curious what he means by "the physics supports the technology [of space-based intercept]"
-“The president gave us three years to deliver this capability..and we’re going to deliver..” -While the technology exists and the physics supports the technology, it’s still unknown whether they [SBIs] would be cost effective or able to be built at the scale needed, he added.
"China won’t dump Russia any time soon, and making frustration over that reality one of the organising principles of Europe’s China policy won’t help — even if Brussels continues to call out Beijing for moralistic reasons," @AlexGabuev writes ft.com/content/8915ab…
I spoke with the Guardian about suspected return of US nuclear weapons to Lakenheath air base in the UK. theguardian.com/world/2025/jul… I found in 2008 that weapons had been withdrawn fas.org/publication/us… and we have documented indications they might return fas.org/publication/po…
Going through old bookmarks... Good questions.
This is a very interesting conversation. As always, Alex @wellerstein is asking good questions... 1/2 carnegie.org/our-work/artic…
Is that....is that what I think it is? Huh. static.e-publishing.af.mil/production/1/l…
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I'm not sure it takes a report to find out that Russia doesn't really care that much.
How does Russia view the UK & French nuclear deterrents? Our latest study, commissioned by @DefenceHQ , explores how Moscow sees the UK’s & France’s nuclear deterrence posture and highlights for more European cohesion & extended deterrence. Full report: rand.org/t/RRA3900-1
🚨 Substantive work begins at the UN meetings to prevent an arms race in outer space (#ParosOEWG) as the agenda and timetable are adopted. Themes from the first few statements: #WMD, #debris, #transparency, #communication, #equiy 🧵
It's probably some kind of important development. But is it really? (The links to KUMMSC at the end of the thread are cool though)
Update on the RAF Lakenheath story. The evidence is overwhelming that the US moved B61s to the Lakenheath WS3 storage shelters. The movement, the units involved, the locations, the NOTAMs, everything points to yes. 1/4
The entire State Dept office of multilateral nuclear affairs was dismissed last week, Alexandra Bell tells @CFR_org. “These were people responsible for efforts to ban explosive nuclear testing, the production of weapons grade material, people working on nuclear disarmament…
I think they were mostly talking about counterforce targeting. Maybe missile defense too (but not explicitly). Interestingly, they seem to have discounted ASW - like, had China started building SSBNs, there would be nothing that the US can do. But ICBMs the US has to target...
A few questions. Russia and China can hold at risk more than 20 U.S. countervalue targets, no? Is a 90% success rate in saving targeted cities via nuke on nuke counterforce achievable? Are U.S. ASW and BMD also involved?
BREAKING NEWS 🇺🇸🇬🇧💣 A batch of US B61-12s have arrived at RAF Lakenheath from Kirtland AFB for the USAF 48th Fighter Wing - and possibly for the RAF’s future F-35As. There is now enough evidence to say the B61s are present. Here’s the flight details from 17-18 July 2025. 1/4
I believe the first flight of B-61 nuclear weapons were delivered to the newly updated facility at RAF Lakenheath, UK yesterday by US Air Force C-17A Globemaster III #AE2FAC as RCH4574 following the pattern of similar nuclear swaps. 1/ x.com/TheIntelFrog/s…