Bill Luby

New post: VIX ETPs – What Can Go Wrong? vixandmore.blogspot.com/2022/04/vix-et… $VXX $UVXY $VIXY $SVXY $UVIX $SVIX

$SPX 50-day historical volatility now down to 10.01, which is the lowest since February 2024, at which point the $VIX was in the 14s

Can it really be that hard to teach a robot to click on a little box that says “I’m not a robot”…

Today is the 5th day in a row that the $VIX has closed at a level more than 2x the $SPX 20-day historical volatility. You have to go back all the way to 2021 to find the last time it was 6 days in a row. Regarding the VIX: it can always higher *and* lower than you expect.

Lowest cash $VIX close since Feb 19, but fixed strike volatility barely moved. Today wasn't a repricing of vol, it was mostly just a reflection of $SPX sliding into lower IV along the embedded skew. Any thoughts @NoelConvex?

I like that headline. Personally I’d be more comfortable with, “Many Think They Know, But Very Few Actually Do”

A $VIX of 16.41 may feel unusually low for this economic, political and geopolitical setting, but it’s more than twice the current 21-day historical volatility in $SPX, which is currently a mere 7.76

Interesting to see the $VIX trending down for the past two hours while the VIX futures and ETPs have been trending up. $VXX $UVIX

First PPI and now this. I continue to rein in my inflation expectations for the balance of the year.

Watch those futures go!

From Scott Galloway's newsletter. One hell of an infographic. H/T @turneyduff

The major tax changes under the Big Beautiful Bill in one chart (for individuals)... Video: youtube.com/watch?v=3urqLB…

When people ask me about various internet rumormongering, my first instinct is to ignore it in the same way the TV cameras don't show the streaker running on the field at Yankee Stadium. But for people who really do wonder about whether the Fed chair would do the opposite of…

Agreed

Thanks to all who participates. Interesting that less than half of the respondents believe tariffs are inflationary. I’ll try to remember to run the exact same poll a month or two after the August 1 deadline and see in which direction the collective thinking is evolving.

I think the next “taily” thing to happen in the derivatives market is vol spikes hard and stays elevated at those levels while the curve actually rolls up for a bit. I feel like so many models are optimized for vol going up and coming right back down. That would put a hole in a…

With thinkorswim down, apparently retail investors are unable to prop up the market. And $SCH has not quite been the diligent custodian of thinkorswim as TDAmeritrade used to be, sadly.