Matthew Schrager
@MatthewSchrager
Co-Head of TD Securities Automated Trading. Algorithmic fixed income trading. Built at Headlands, acquired by TD. Ex-Headlands/DRW. Personal account.
Thank you @elham_saeidi for this great piece. It was a pleasure to work with you, and to be part of the Market Microstructure Project. Exciting time in fixed income. Tons of opportunity for those willing to disrupt. And we’re only at the beginning. Much more to come from here.
I’m pleased to share the latest piece from my Market Microstructure Project—an interview with @MatthewSchrager , Managing Director & Co-Head of TD Securities Automated Trading, on fixed-income market making. TD Securities is now the largest fixed-income market maker in the U.S.,…
When you find yourself making a semantic argument about exactly which type of manipulation you used to inflate the price of your crypto token that has subsequently crashed by 90%… You’ve already lost.
interviewed the ceo of $OM which crashed -90%. >$30-$45m was sold OTC by the team. >$10m was reinjected back into $OM in mid-2024. >CEO says that isn't pumping the price. >we disagree on what "pumping the price" is. >full interview on Youtube.
Truly iconic.
Never gonna forget this moment and how the market went into an immediate tailspin moment it was unveiled
Can anyone steel man a rationale for this 51st state obsession? What, even in theory, does the US collectively or Trump individually stand to gain from annexing Canada?
if this doesnt disturb and scare you, you are an idiot. Trump is not sane.
The unifying theme is: the world disentangling itself from the US financial complex. Since this is the inverse of the trend of the last few decades, it is counterintuitive to recent historical logic. But that doesn’t mean it’s inexplicable.
Current situation: 1. Stocks are falling like the trade war is escalating 2. The US Dollar is falling like trade deals are near 3. Oil prices are falling like rate cuts are not coming 4. Gold prices are rising like rate cuts are on the way 5. Tech stocks are falling like we…
The US has told the world it wants to decouple, and this is what that looks like in financial form.
Personally if I saw gold up only, usd down, bond yields up, equities down and I was in charge of things that would scare me way more than standard recession rotation price action This is arguably worse
Bessent says that the tariff pause is not because of the market volatility
Bessent says that the tariff pause is not because of the market volatility
Unfortunately this keeps getting more relevant by the minute:
One interpretation: a step towards the nightmare scenario. Recession leads to falling tax receipts and (even) higher deficits, while simultaneously the world looks for ways to extricate itself from the US financial complex, reducing demand for treasuries. That world - with…
Treasuries aren’t cash to foreign entities with non-dollar-denominated obligations. They’re close enough if you think of the US as an ally with whom you are inextricably financially intertwined. That statement is less applicable to many countries today than a week ago.
Sadly this is getting more relevant:
One interpretation: a step towards the nightmare scenario. Recession leads to falling tax receipts and (even) higher deficits, while simultaneously the world looks for ways to extricate itself from the US financial complex, reducing demand for treasuries. That world - with…
Turns out blowing up your net operating loss (recession -> expanding deficit) while simultaneously alienating a major buyer base for your debt (the rest of the world) is not uniformly positive for your long-term financing costs. In this sense the “cause a recession to reduce…
One of the biggest market stories right now has to be the admin's failure to really get meaningfully lower rates. 10-year still just a bit below 4%, even with a market crash
One interpretation: a step towards the nightmare scenario. Recession leads to falling tax receipts and (even) higher deficits, while simultaneously the world looks for ways to extricate itself from the US financial complex, reducing demand for treasuries. That world - with…
The radical proposal is just: cut spending. Yes, it is politically unpopular. Yes, it will be uncomfortable. But clearly, there is no easy path here.
So - what’s the most likely number of countries with which a tariff deal will have been struck by Monday morning? Zero or the field?
Agree - the nightmare dynamic is equities cratering while long yields *rise* as foreigners ditch USD and markets price in higher recession-induced deficits etc. Hopefully we’re not there. On the other hand… long yields didn’t really rally that much today…
Completely different situation. People want out of usd based assets like mag7 and UST’s and USD to get into their domestic currency. They want out of it. Opposite of the flight to safety. Kinda scarier imo. Minor bid in 10’s but would have expected much lower yields in this…
Spoiler alert: not financials.
What prompts a cable-news media stock to rise +800% in one day? Newsmax, $NMAX, now up from $10.00 to $97.80 in 1 day.
In context of employment, AI is an evolutionary step in the process of productivity enhancement via technological innovation. Naively, the platonic ideal end state is that technology handles humanity's needs and nobody needs to work. In practice, this produces all sorts of…
Over the next century, this is the single most important issue for society We were able to shift employment in society from agriculture to services. Can we do it again? If not, can we work out a system like UBI that actually works?
Eh, zoom out. This is just a small pickup off basically all-time lows. Spreads were higher all the way back in *checks notes* August of last year. If there's a real scare, this is just getting started.
Credit spreads at 2025 highs Yeah, you can call it a growth scare now sherwood.news/markets/credit…
Remember when everyone was talking about the “last mile” of disinflation being difficult? Turns out they were right.
Stubborn is the new transient.
Agree. Easy to blast the loss of manufacturing jobs, but much harder to address the reasons we lost those jobs in the first place.
we'll see what happens but i think there's been a lot of cheap heat from the public, politicians, and policy entrepreneurs on the basics of globalization and global supply chains, there's a reason policy evolved this way for so long...