fejau
@fejau_inc
Shitposts, macro, crypto. Host of podcast & newsletter @forwardguidance
Does the head of macro not understand how mortgages get priced?
I respect that President Trump is calling out Jerome Powell for keeping rates artificially high, which block Americans from buying a home. I don't respect that "influencers" are spreading fake news about Powell every 15 minutes.
Why do people quote the mtm value of bonds for discerning whether they are selling and not the # of CUSIPs owned? Imputes a third variable (price change) that makes the whole analysis way noisier. I don't get it
China is dumping US Treasuries at great speed as the US continues to overextend itself and weaponising the dollar. Stealing Russian assets was a historic mistake
another day another IQ test for the timeline in the era of AI slop
I don’t know who needs to hear this but Powell is only 1 of 12 votes on short term interest rates Fed chairs moving [short term] rates lower doesn’t mean 10-30yr rates will fall by the same amount
I’m old enough to remember when Bessent said many times he wouldn’t comment on ongoing monetary policy Good times, good times
US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Fed should be cutting rates now.
Last few days of July will set the stage for markets for the rest of the year imo. FOMC meeting where dovish dissents are looking very likely QRA meeting where we will get a look into how willing Bessent is going to be to try to weaponize treasury issuance for the first time…
Great pod from two good dudes I’ve had the good fortune of being able to call friends. They say never meet your heroes and I guess that’s true only in that it ends up in Demetri and I going into a hour long rabbit hole meta discussion on podcasts and media 😂
I’m joined on @HiddenForcesPod by @FedGuy12 to discuss his monetary and public policy frameworks, how they help us make sense of the White House’s trade policy, and the downstream consequences for financial markets and the broader economy. 🧵👇🏼 hiddenforces.io/podcasts/capit…
All in podcast listeners this morning trying to get ISDA's so they can borrow at SOFR (4.3%) to make 2% on a basis trade
Ain’t no way you guys are gonna make me trade NFTs again man I can’t go back
Imagine bragging about underperforming T bills
For those that watch the @theallinpod, you may remember that my most obvious trade idea heading into Jan was long the S&P Index and short the Mag7. Aka the “Mean Reversion Index Trade” Turned out to be free money. Very rare that the market gives you these kinds of fat pitches.
Based on my timeline you would have thought the ROW rotatooooors got burned and were wrong but here we are Not currently in euro stocks but it was a great trade from Jan to May for me
Euro stocks are benefiting from a weaker currency and major multiple expansion YTD. From Johnson Financial.
Eth has been up only ever since @fundstrat and I got on stage together at @Permissionless There’s no such thing as a coincidence
Man the people that are stuck in the world that changes in fed funds rate are the key driver of the economy and animal spirits must be so lost rn
About that lack of speculation thing…
You're allowed to be bullish on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana at the same time without making one of them your personality btw
Recorded just this morning! Was honored to be joined by the great @agnostoxxx for our weekly roundup!
🚀 NEW ROUNDUP: The Great Ponzi-fication Of Markets We Discuss: 🔶 The Golden Age of Grift 🔶 Why bonds are broken 🔶 The “Fire Powell” trial balloon 🔶 Japan risk repeat 🔶 Hedging for the summer @agnostoxxx @Tyler_Neville_ @qthomp @fejau_inc Links Below ↓
Started a BPC 157 cycle for some lingering long time major injuries that never quite healed right and most routes of physio etc couldn't quite get fixed. Anyone have any anecdotes on their experience?