George Robertson
@BickerinBrattle
Expert in fixed income, equity, and their derivatives. Started at Liars Poker Salomon, last job as head of long duration (US Treasurys) for MSIM.
The Great Recession of 2025 has commenced. Chance Trump smells this - perhaps reads this - and does a 180 in a blink of an eye, but the Trump Chaos risk rising will remain. Worth your time to prove me wrong.
Tariffs have initiated a recession in QII 2025 - or, will be a recession if tariffs continue for another 3 months (100 days?). This is not surmise but hard data presents this without much room for debate. The level year over year rolling, year over year annual change in %, and
amazing the level of ignorance over party politics, the reason for parties, the legal framing of parties, and how successful Trump has been to keeping them ignorant. Trump is not GOP, for example and only the ignorant think otherwise. Lot of ignorance out there, though.
you can count that there are some grim very real folks ready to go if: 1) Trump orders troops out outside the pose comitatus 2) If Trump becomes hostile to a another country 3) If Trump arrested by the House and resists arrests 4) If Trump starts to steal from Treasury 5) are…
this is a bit disrespectful of dear leader, isnt it senate first then house and they will are turning on Trump as he has become untenable for even the most cynical
HUGE PROBLEM
or just the words of a conniving insane megalomaniac? how many times does the nation go through this?
🇺🇸🇪🇺 TRUMP: EU TRADE DEAL ODDS? “FLIP A COIN.” Trump says there’s a 50-50 shot the U.S. strikes a trade deal with the EU to slash tariffs - then immediately adds that negotiators are working “closely” and a deal could be near. So... glass half full? Or just mid-negotiation…
i refuse to consider the possibility that the US federal republic ends with Trump.
dont worry about anything I say as I think BTC goes to $0 and have blown every last cent I have available for trading on OTM sorta short dated SP500 puts. still got them. why should you listen to me?
ok cool it on the fear and loathing regain some composure. truly sickened. why arent you? and I am GOP registered an all
if he pardons Maxwell - no he has done enough just discussing it with Maxwell - deserves a special prosecutor and then no matter what party or partisan leanings, an indictment of impeachment and then a trial by Senate. full clear scrutiny with Congressional powers required now.
Epstein files reminds me of when Watergate broke. Only a megalomaniac who has no scale, little sense of reality would have let this gotten this far. so for Nixon. is going to be so for Trump. Trump will be known as the man cut a deal with Maxwell. "what did you expect"
at the core, what is the difference. anytime spent with Maxwell is defining just as if he sought out to discuss things with Dahlmer. dont think I am being sensational this is a heavy moment in US history. a sitting president sees need to negotiate with a heinous convicted
if you have any morals or civic character - how can you support Trump given he has already sent the 2nd in command of the DOJ to spend hours with one of the most heinous convicted criminals, a child rapist, trafficker? the man is evil.
you call yourself Christian and you support a man who is cutting a deal with a convicted child rapist/trafficker/pimp/molester - will settle for what is in the public record and verified as fact. already this man has sent his top asst DOJ to spend hours to see if a deal can be…
projection?
🚨🇺🇸 TRUMP: “EVERYTHING IS FAKE WITH THE DEMOCRATS” "Everything is fake with the Democrats. Take a look at what they just found about the dossier, everything is FAKE. They're a bunch of sick people.” Source: @RapidResponse47
already Trump has proven that he and his senior DOJ are scumbags by dealing with Maxwell. Maxwell's ethics and morals are now defining Trump and DOJ. Scum
to exonerate himself big mistake seeking word of convicted degenerate pervert child molester, sex trafficker, pimp to do that - even if he is blameless. he has already done great damage if not proving it by having a senior DOJ deal with her.
"Wall St favoring Trump pivot to lower US tariffs, taxes, rates (SPX 9% YTD, besting Treasuries 3%, catching International 22%); in contrast, Main St less adoring: Trump job approval back near April lows" - BofA
I blame Craig Simpson a history prof at UWO circa 1970s for screwing me up and making me ornery and non compliant regarding current US politics and hence markets. Thanks Dr. Simpson
should be kept in mind about 98% of the Senate despise, loath and hate Trump. They think they can use him for their own myriad of agenda. Once they realize he is using them and has the ability that after doing so ruin them and has track record of ruining all his partners...