J. Miles Coleman

TX-29 is on the chopping block for Texas’s mid-decade redistricting, and Republicans will have a hard time making a more extreme map. Harris carried the seat by over 20 points last year, although this particular seat has shifted notably rightwards recently #ElectionTwitter

Trump team "pissed off" with Kemp over candidate pick in Georgia's Senate GOP primary battle. Kemp and Trump met two weeks ago to discuss the Senate race in Georgia. When the governor floated the name of former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley, a source close…

Happy Friday! In 1968, Virginia voters narrowly chose Richard Nixon for President. Like the rest of the South, sharp racial divides split the state's historically large Democratic electorate. Nixon had considerable support in the suburbs, medium-sized cities, and the Valley.

Wisconsin LT Governor Sara Rodriguez and a former healthcare official who is running to succeed Tony Evers was first elected to the State Assembly in 2020 in Assembly District 13 defeating incumbent Rob Hutton who had been an electoral overperformer

Considering who might be running for governor, we could end up with open Democratic primaries for every state constitutional office in Wisconsin next year -- Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State and State Treasurer. Wild.

I had the pleasure of authoring chapter 11 on money and politics and emerging campaign finance trends in the 2024 election:

#Breaking: More than a dozen Texas Democrats have left the state for California and Illinois.

It's happening @JMilesColeman wbtv.com/2025/07/24/rai…

ICYMI: I asked Huizenga about another House run in #MI04 He said he made “no promises” "We had to get through this decision first. Natalie & I had agreed we were in on a Senate run. Now that I've been asked not to run for the Senate, well, we've got some other decisions to make”

Crystal Ball gubernatorial rating change: WI-GOV Leans D to Toss-up after Gov. Tony Evers (D) decides not to run for another term. Ds should still have a decent chance to hold it in context of 2026 but incumbency is still valuable in GOV races, so there's added variability now

The 2021 California Gubernatorial Recall, an unnecessary election that solidified Newsom's political capital in California—& provided some desperately needed political capital for Democratic President Joe Biden—

CAMPAIGN OF CHAOS, our new book on the 2024 election, is now available, featuring @costareports @SeanTrende @nataliemj10 @lxeagle17 @grace_panetta @LarrySabato and the Crystal Ball team and many others

NEW Crystal Ball -- If a redistricting war breaks out, Republicans have more and easier paths to gerrymanders than Democrats. A 50-state assessment: centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/as…

the 9% all just got an email from jubilee

UPDATE: Sources tell WRAL that Roy Cooper has made a decision on his political future: He *will* run for US Senate. An official announcement is expected in the coming days. wral.com/story/cooper-t…

🧵 The data you have all been waiting for! The NYC mayoral primary WITHOUT batch elimination (and some early analysis) 1) Zohran's first round (469,642) would have been enough to win against Cuomo's final round (443,229)

1964-2024 swing in Pennsylvania

My first ever raising cane's @JMilesColeman

The 2018 MN Gubernatoeial Election, a contest between U.S. Rep for MN-01 Tim Walz, Former MN House Majority leader Rep Erin Murphy, and State Attorney General Lori Swanson saw Walz pull a come behind victory over the well known State AG Swanson

This entire California redistricting arc would be a lot funnier if Kevin McCarthy was still speaker. Because imagine being able to threaten to wipe out the speaker if Texas redistricts.