Center for Politics at UVA

NEW Crystal Ball -- @JMilesColeman and I on the Bacon and Tillis retirements, including why we're moving NE-2 to Leans D and keeping NC-SEN as a Toss-up centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ba…

I had the pleasure of authoring chapter 11 on money and politics and emerging campaign finance trends in the 2024 election:

Had the pleasure of writing chapter seven detailing gubernatorial & state legislative elections results. Check it out, folks!🥳

NEW @LarrySabato's Crystal Ball: As Texas readies a new gerrymander, @kkondik surveys the redistricting rules and possibilities across the country and finds that Republicans have both more gerrymandering opportunities and fewer roadblocks than Democrats centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/as…

It is astounding (at least to me) that James Earl Ray was (apparently) photographed at Cuban Embassy in Mexico City in Oct. 1967 by the same CIA set-up that allegedly took Oswald’s photo at the same embassy in Sept. 1963. Except the photo wasn’t of Oswald, and the Ray photos only…

Best guess on remaining files. MLK: Today's release of 200,000+ pages include internal memos, info from Ray's former cellmate, foreign evidence & CIA records on international search for Ray. Files admin. claims were stored for decades but not digitized.  JFK: NARA has not yet…

First impressions of today's release of MLK Jr. documents: Largely excludes years of malicious FBI surveillance aimed at damaging King’s reputation; Bulk focused on assassination investigation of James Earl Ray containing little that changes the basic narrative. That does not…

I wrote the foreword for a new book on the 2024 election published by UVA's @Center4Politics featuring analysis by @LarrySabato @kkondik and many other journalists and academics. It hits bookstores this Thursday. You can buy it here: bloomsbury.com/us/campaign-of…

NEW @LarrySabato's Crystal Ball: -- @JMilesColeman on when each state was most Republican from 2004-2024 centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/20… -- @kkondik on why Iowa's Senate race would still be rated Likely Republican if Joni Ernst retired centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ev…

Also, @kkondik on how we’d treat the Iowa Senate race if it were an open seat. Overall, we agree with @LauraRBelin’s take on the race. centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ev…

CRYSTAL BALL: My look at how the partisan leans of states have changed over 20 years. Some good/bad news for both parties here. centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/20…

Presidential words matter. “We choose to go to the Moon…” JFK, Sept. 12, 1962, Rice University.

CRYSTAL BALL: Nebraska Senate + looking to the special House elections later this year, with TN-7 opening up most recently. All these races are favored to stay with their incumbent/usual party, though to varying degrees. centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/no…

Crystal Ball Senate rating change: Nebraska goes from Safe R to Likely R. Ricketts is probably a stronger incumbent than Fischer, but Osborn was the best-performing non-Republican candidate on last year's Senate map (relative to the top of the ticket). centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/th…

Congratulations to '25 G. Richard Fletcher Scholars, Douglas C. Page Scholar, and @Center4Politics' newest cohort of 22nd Century Scholars. More about their accomplishments here: centerforpolitics.org/center-for-pol…

In time for the 4th, one of those wonderful "when did" pieces that the wonky among us love to read. @JMilesColeman for @LarrySabato @Center4Politics When Democrats did best (hint, skinny guy with funny name did OK) Watch the D erosion in the Midwest centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/20…

Welcome to Grounds, #UVA29. We look forward to meeting more of you throughout the summer! 💙🧡

Creating a new political party? Elon Musk will find this harder than making rockets soar.