Kyle Kondik
@kkondik
American elections analyst; Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball at UVA Center for Politics. Sign up free at http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball
My new history of House elections since the 1960s, "The Long Red Thread," is now available. We published an excerpt today that hits on the key trends over the past half century in the House centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar…
New: Trump’s team is “very concerned” that a Doug Mastriano gubernatorial bid “could jeopardize or add to the jeopardization” of multiple key House races in PA. Mastriano, who lost the PA guv election by 15 points in 2022, is teasing a comeback campaign. politico.com/news/2025/07/2…
Perhaps notable amidst these terrible party favorability numbers for Ds is that the generic ballot in this poll is 46-43 D. R favorability is exactly the same as their generic ballot share, D ballot share is 13 pts higher than party favorability
WSJ (Fabrizio/Impact) poll | 7/16-7/20 RV Democratic Party favorables Unfavorable 63% Favorable 33% --- Republican Party favorables Unfavorable 54% Favorable 43% wsj.com/politics/elect…
#ELB: “As Redistricting War Looms, Republicans Have More Plausible Gerrymandering Targets than Democrats” electionlawblog.org/?p=151131
Today 315AD The Arch of Constantine was finished & was commissioned by the Senate to celebrate the victory in 312AD of Constantine I over Maxentius at the Battle of Milvian Bridge. Its Situated between the Colosseum & the Palatine Hill. Its also the largest Roman triumphal arch
Isn't there a chance that a mid-decade redistricting in 2025 in any state would be held up in lawsuits, courts, and appeals long enough to not take effect by November 2026, let alone the primaries? Texas, for instance, has primaries scheduled for March 3, 2026.
NEW Crystal Ball -- If a redistricting war breaks out, Republicans have more and easier paths to gerrymanders than Democrats. A 50-state assessment: centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/as…
Great read on the upcoming redistricting battles. I’d just reiterate that I’m confident CA Dems will retaliate, if Texas choses to redraw anything An initiative to change the constitution would clear the legislature, and it would then go to the voters Prob where we’re headed..
NEW Crystal Ball -- If a redistricting war breaks out, Republicans have more and easier paths to gerrymanders than Democrats. A 50-state assessment: centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/as…
Wisconsin gubernatorial race move to toss-up.
Crystal Ball gubernatorial rating change: WI-GOV Leans D to Toss-up after Gov. Tony Evers (D) decides not to run for another term. Ds should still have a decent chance to hold it in context of 2026 but incumbency is still valuable in GOV races, so there's added variability now
In chess, it's common for both sides to have the same number of pieces, yet one still holds a clear advantage. That’s exactly how I feel about WI statewide races. It’s technically a toss-up, but when you look at the turnout and how they count it feels more Tilt D.
Crystal Ball gubernatorial rating change: WI-GOV Leans D to Toss-up after Gov. Tony Evers (D) decides not to run for another term. Ds should still have a decent chance to hold it in context of 2026 but incumbency is still valuable in GOV races, so there's added variability now
Another from former Republican guv Scott Walker, who would be the 45th governor and 47th governor if he ran and won.
😉
NEW Crystal Ball -- If a redistricting war breaks out, Republicans have more and easier paths to gerrymanders than Democrats. A 50-state assessment: centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/as…
Crystal Ball gubernatorial rating change: WI-GOV Leans D to Toss-up after Gov. Tony Evers (D) decides not to run for another term. Ds should still have a decent chance to hold it in context of 2026 but incumbency is still valuable in GOV races, so there's added variability now
Can D's retake House? Harder if TX GOP acts on Trump push to redistrict. From @kkondik for @LarrySabato @Center4Politics Both sides have targets (D, CA,NY, IL) + R (IN,KS, KY, MO) but D's have more institutional challenges--including GOP dominated courts centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/as…
To me, Kyle’s great analysis shows that the Democrats are screwed for 2026. They massively blundered not redrawing Minnesota for 2024. BUT it’s not hard to imagine them getting trifectas in a wave in 2026 & unwinding commissions in elsewhere to gerrymander for 2028.
NEW Crystal Ball -- If a redistricting war breaks out, Republicans have more and easier paths to gerrymanders than Democrats. A 50-state assessment: centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/as…
thanks for the shoutout on the new book @politicalwire politicalwire.com/2025/07/24/cam…
A great review of the national mid-decade redistricting landscape from @kkondik centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/as…
Thank god for Palmers Variety Store in Pittsfield, Mass., which still carries 11 daily newspapers, everything from NY Post to FT (NYT out of frame to left). This at a time when you can't buy a single paper at the Philadelphia or Baltimore train station, and many other places.
New from Bill Bolling: "It is ultimately up to Winsome Sears to bring unity to the GOP ticket. If she refuses to do so she will prove that she is not qualified to serve as governor." …giniapoliticalnewsletter.substack.com/p/commentary-m…
if a redistricting war breaks out, I am very concerned about what this means for my work life balance
NEW Crystal Ball -- If a redistricting war breaks out, Republicans have more and easier paths to gerrymanders than Democrats. A 50-state assessment: centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/as…
CAMPAIGN OF CHAOS, our new book on the 2024 election, is now available, featuring @costareports @SeanTrende @nataliemj10 @lxeagle17 @grace_panetta @LarrySabato and the Crystal Ball team and many others