Mike Waugh
@tradewartracker
economist following #trade #tariffs @ https://tradewartracker.com views ≠ those of my employer
reposting this (as I forgot to do so back then)... I learned a lot writing this paper: 1) how household heterogeneity shapes aggregate trade, its responses, and the gains from trade 2) When heterogeneity matters (or not) and the role of market incompleteness and inefficiency
A model in which household heterogeneity is induced via incomplete markets, resulting in heterogenous price elasticities — implying rich and poor households experience different gains from trade, from @tradewartracker nber.org/papers/w31810
Why have the #tariff impacts been delayed? the take from @MinneapolisFed minneapolisfed.org/article/2025/t…
When Trump announced sweeping tariffs in April, economists warned prices would jump and a recession was likely. Neither has happened -- yet. My latest story looks into why tariffs haven't hit the economic data yet, and why it's still too soon to conclude they won't.
Donald Trump pushes for 15%-20% minimum tariff on all EU goods ft.com/content/43c98c… via @ft
The tariff inflation shock really got going in June. Core goods inflation (top left) was 80 bps above where it normally is at this time of year (purple). The tariff hit is most pronounced for furniture (top right) & recreation (bottom left), but apparel is hit too (bottom right).
Director: LA port in for a ‘bumpy ride’ as Aug. 1 tariffs loom ow.ly/xSeP106fZ7m