sam manning
@sj_manning
Penelope, Otis, and Annie's dad. Senior Research Fellow @GovAI_
Many people are asking this. Some starter ideas here: cdn.governance.ai/RFI_Labor_Impa…
Serious question: if you believe there was >25% chance that Dario Amodei was right about AI eliminating tens of millions of jobs over the next 1-5 years including half of all entry-level white collar jobs. What would government do now? What would it do if this really happened?
New results on the impact of $1000/month of unconditional cash assistance on parenting and children's outcomes.
1000 low income adults were randomly selected to receive $1000/month for 3 years, with a control group receiving $50/month over that same period. Many of them had children in the household. How did it affect how they parented and their kids?
NEW: There’s been a lot of discussion lately about rising graduate unemployment. I dug a little closer and a striking story emerged: Unemployment is climbing among young graduate *men*, but college-educated young women are generally doing okay.
Applications still open to become part of the compute team + other AI policy roles at RAND! The Technology and Security Policy Center (TASP) is likely the largest team of AI strategy experts the world has ever seen. Join us if you want to help us do the hard work!
Researchers for our Compute team (led by Lennart Heim): ML engineers, semiconductor experts, and excellent generalists to contribute to papers, technical analyses, briefings, etc. on compute governance & adjacent areas. heim.xyz/hiring/
Wondering if we should just move all peer review to twitter
some readers have been concerned about the way we compute standard errors. here is HC3 errors (which we'll move to by default), followed by homoskedastic errors (previous default), and SEs clustered at the dev level, all for our default regression specification. adding to paper!
CNAS’ Tech and AI programs are hiring for FIVE (5) new positions! This is a terrific opportunity to work on some of the most fascinating, fast-moving, and consequential policy issues of our time with the best colleagues around. Apply now!
The EU's Code of Practice for General-Purpose AI is out. As one of the co-chairs who drafted the Safety & Security Chapter, focused on frontier AI, I'm proud of what we've put together. It’s a lean but effective framework for frontier AI companies to comply with the AI Act.
I agree with the high-level points here by @anton_d_leicht, give it a read!
New Post on AI & Jobs: Two Phases of Automation AI job policy faces a timing problem: We will need to develop policy on existential disruptions while facing a 'normal' automation wave. That makes for treacherous politics & credibility traps. 🧵
GovAI is hiring! You can join us as a Research Scholar for a year, or as a Research Fellow on a more permanent basis. The deadline for both applications is Sunday 20 July 2025. Learn more about these roles in the thread and here: governance.ai/opportunities 1/3