Samuel Charap
@scharap
Senior Political Scientist, @RANDCorporation. Co-Author, Everyone Loses http://amzn.to/2iPeSzO
Crucial and super-timely by @scharap: What we've seen so far is nothing like normal, adequate peace negotiations, which are typically far more comprehensive, technical, lengthy. Accordingly, negotiations haven't "failed", but a much more earnest, serious effort is needed. Link⬇️
"Putin thinks no one has seriously engaged with him on the details of peace in Ukraine - including the Americans - so he will continue until he gets what he wants.” Interesting reporting by @GuyReuters reuters.com/business/aeros…
🧵Introducing optimal deterrence. Here's my proposed U.S. nuclear strategy for managing escalation, arms racing, and proliferation with two nuclear peers, published through @CFR_org. Health warning: If you like counterforce, take a DEEP breath before reading on. (1/n)
On Lawfare Daily, @MySoldatenko spoke to Eric Ciaramella, (@CarnegieEndow), and @scharap, (@RANDCorporation) about the key issues in the Ukraine-Russia talks, whether a negotiated settlement is possible, and what form a potential agreement may take.
An active US-Russia arms-control regime is probably a necessary condition for any future arms-control arrangements with China. @realDonaldTrump needs to give New START a fresh start, @scharap and @KingstonAReif argue. bit.ly/4kSUFaK
1/ Mit @MEtzold habe ich für den @sternde den amerikanischen Osteuropa-Experten @scharap zu den Perspektiven der ukrainisch-russischen Verhandlungen befragt. stern.de/politik/auslan…
If New START expires with nothing to replace it, there would be no agreed upon limits on the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals for the first time in decades – By @scharap and @KingstonAReif tomorrowsaffairs.com/can-the-us-and… @ProSyn
New op-ed with @KingstonAReif on a US-Russia deal that is actually possible to get done in short order: a return to New START implementation: project-syndicate.org/commentary/new…
The maximalist aspects of the Russian proposal are far less surprising than how badly formulated a document it is. Very convoluted and unclear in terms of sequencing, particularly the ceasefire options.
progress on POW/KIA exchanges and agreement to meet again is a pretty positive outcome given the ongoing and intensifying deep strikes on both sides
Umerov announces there will be another POW/KIA exchange coming out of the talks. t.me/RBC_ua_news/14…
there's already agreement that a third round of talks will take place "at some point", according to TASS. #istanbul #Russsia #ukraine tass.ru/politika/24114…
Leaks of these kinds of documents might be good for transparency and useful for researchers, but negotiations like these require a degree of confidentiality to succeed. When leaks like this stop we'll know the talks have reached a more serious stage.
We @FT wrote yesterday about the Ukrainian memorandum that Zelensky's delegation will present to the Russian side today. It lays out what Kyiv sees as a viable path to the end of the war. Here is the full text in Ukrainian and English. The Russians have refused to provide their…
For current negotiations to end the war in Ukraine and create a durable peace, they must “address Kyiv’s and Moscow’s fears about each other over the long term,” write @scharap and @DrRadchenko. foreignaffairs.com/united-states/…
When you read the headlines proclaiming tomorrow’s talks a failure, bear in mind that expectations of anything resembling a breakthrough at this stage in the process do not reflect the realities of this war. This is going to be a long, hard slog.
After three years of grinding war in Ukraine, @scharap and @DrRadchenko reexamine the last real attempt to bring the conflict to a negotiated end—and consider what it will take for the present diplomatic effort to succeed: foreignaffairs.com/united-states/…