Oren Samet

🚨 Excited to share new work just published in @AJPS_Editor! I look at opposition coalitions and electoral performance in authoritarian regimes—and show how near-victories can create problems for both oppositions and democratic prospects. Brief 🧵 on the findings; link below

Represents a major shift: new memo from Sec of State Rubio orders statements on foreign elections to “avoid opining on the fairness or integrity of an electoral process, its legitimacy, or the democratic values of the country in question.” wsj.com/politics/polic…

Fascinating details in here about what’s going on behind the scenes on US #Myanmar policy Confirms that recent sanctions relief for cronies was not part of an overarching policy shift, but one may still be coming. Seems like no one in the admin has any real sense of Myanmar tho

“OFAC’s July 2025 delistings are neither a weakening of U.S. policy nor a reward for good behavior. They are costly, technical legal outcomes happening in many sanctioned countries.” #Myanmar #sanctions english.dvb.no/understanding-…

This is pretty crazy. Evidence of a totally broken policy process more than an affirmative decision, I have to assume. But damn… what a fuck up

The new “values-based” foreign policy is increasingly zeroing in on Europe and platform regulation as key priority areas This type of rhetoric was previously reserved for the worst dictatorships. Now it’s deployed against allies

The Cambodian gov just granted itself a new tool in the arsenal of weapons to attack the opposition. Expect it to be used against high-profile opposition leaders abroad

And there it is. They’re extremely explicit about it: we must stand up for “democracy” and that means anyone who can cast themself as an oppressed Trumpian figure deserves US gov support

Former Pres Bolsonaro’s son says he won’t go back to #Brazil, highlighting the value of his lobbying efforts abroad: “The work I am doing here in the US is more important than the work I could do in Brazil” Will the trade-off pay off?

A massive "fuck you" to an important country in an important region. Add this to the number of ways the US is failing to compete with China in the Indo-Pacific. Setting America's reputation on fire to please a base that's way too online politico.com/news/2025/07/1…

Weaponizing the language of democracy and “shared values” to pursue very different aims In line with the argument I made last month in @ForeignPolicy about the “new values-based foreign policy”: foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/27/us-…

Time is a flat circle in Thai politics

I’d wager few on the left have much empathy for Elon, so I think this statement is incorrect

I got really great feedback at this workshop from @ginopauselli and others. Would highly recommend to others working on IOs and adjacent topics within IR!