Lennart Heim
@ohlennart
managing the flop @RANDcorporation | Also @GovAI_ & @EpochAIResearch
China's AI models are closing the gap—and will continue to improve. However, this misses America's strategic compute advantage. In my new commentary, I argue that the TOTAL compute advantage is what export controls preserve and—if leveraged correctly—provides the real edge. 1/
An essential resource just got better!
So excited to share that today @CSETGeorgetown and @emergingtechobs are launching an ✨updated✨ version of our chip supply chain explorer! We've got: 👉 New data 👉 New features 👉 New analysis Links in thread
The window of opportunity is currently open. The PRC still lacks the compute necessary to widely export and embed their cloud services and AI systems around the world (see work from @ohlennart below). x.com/ohlennart/stat…
China's AI models are closing the gap—and will continue to improve. However, this misses America's strategic compute advantage. In my new commentary, I argue that the TOTAL compute advantage is what export controls preserve and—if leveraged correctly—provides the real edge. 1/
Read the full piece: "Beyond Export Controls: How Strategic Promotion of American AI Abroad Can Protect the Homeland & Check China" therepublicjournal.com/web-exclusives…
This is an important and good paper! As someone often seen as an advocate for training compute thresholds, I'm glad to see criticism focused on what matters most: the regulatory target. But some comments: First, I shared similar reflections a few months ago after leaving…
Frontier AI regulation should focus on the handful of large AI developers at the frontier, not on particular models or uses. That is what Dean Ball (@deanwball) and I argue in a new article, out today from Carnegie (@CarnegieEndow).
We took a look at Chinese government efforts to accelerate AI. TL;DR: They are subsidizing at every layer of the stack, some of it useful, some wasteful. Compute remains a key bottleneck that will be hard to overcome without Western tech.
New @RANDCorporation Insight with @kyleichan and friends. China’s industrial policy for AI is targeting the full stack. It'll boost talent, infrastructure, and deployment, but chips and compute remain a bottleneck. rand.org/pubs/perspecti…
NVIDIA's latest chip architecture (Blackwell) achieves 10 TB/s die-to-die bandwidth—nearly 20x faster than the 910C's 540 GB/s. This gap shows the limitations of China's domestic advanced packaging offerings. More: x.com/ohlennart/stat…
Unlike NVIDIA's advanced packaging in the B100/200 series, the 910C likely uses a less technically sophisticated approach with two separate silicon interposers connected by an organic substrate. 4/
Plot twist: Replace "shipbuilding" with "chipbuilding" and swap China for that small island neighbor. Same story, different industry.
🚨 NEW EPISODE 🚨 This week on the Dynamist, we brought on @rSanti97, @Chris_Griz, @kelvinotcelsius, and @JoinFAI's Robert Bellafiore to discuss the Techno Industrial Policy Playbook (TIPP), a project whose urgency can be summed up by one graph 🧵
The core idea is simple: building a broad and deep understanding, bit by bit, over time, is worthwhile. In particular, it compounds: build up your understanding by answering small questions and you'll be surprised how fast you can start to answer big questions.
me defending my most recent estimates
if you can't round away a few orders of magnitude do you even work in ai?
We're planning to review the first batch of applications next week (Monday 6/23)! Make sure to apply if you're interested in crunching numbers for better AI policy.
My team at RAND is hiring! Technical analysis for AI policy is desperately needed. Particularly keen on ML engineers and semiconductor experts eager to shape AI policy. Also seeking excellent generalists excited to join our fast-paced, impact-oriented team. Links below.
Morning. Here are our guest call-ins today: - @BerntBornich (1X Tech) - @Emily_Sundberg (Feed Me) - @JoshuaSteinman (Galvanick) - @JohnDoyleCape (Cape) - @ohlennart (RAND Corp) See you all on the stream.
TBPN | Friday, June 13th x.com/i/broadcasts/1…