Michael Nicoletos
@mnicoletos
Curious on how behavioral fallacies challenge financial markets (and cryptos). Always learning new things, getting to know new people, and having a bit of fun.
Erosion in Disguise The Silent Decline of Money’s Value. What if the following significant correction isn’t a sudden crash? What if it’s already here, taking shape in ways most don’t expect? Attached, please find the latest note on a dilemma I have been reflecting on for some…
Strange I thought everyone was dumping USTs… 🤔
BREAKING: US Treasury funds posted a record ~$19 billion in net inflows last week. This surpassed the previous high of ~$14 billion seen during the 2020 pandemic. As a result, the 4-week moving average jumped to ~$7 billion, the highest since March 2023. Meanwhile, the 30-year…
Sorry Yuri…most of the people have indeed failed to grasp the danger
No. For Americans, there is no where else to defect to. The USA is the last holdout.
🚨 While the world fixates on US deficits and Trump's tariffs, China's economic house of cards is crumbling FASTER than you think! 💥🇨🇳 China's M2 money supply just exploded to ~$46 trillion, surging by over $2 trillion since the beginning of the year, fueled by massive stimulus…
This chart has not been copied on X (yet), and it’s the most incredible chart right now… @BittelJulien @fejau_inc
This appears to be a sudden demand for #liquidity thru' SRF. We have seen this before, but it suggests repo liquidity tightening, banks may not have capacity and so #Fed marginal supplier. If this trend continues, rate cuts are coming...fast
Lets read something about US #liquidity into this, but probably not too much given holiday.... adds to the rate cut debate
My patient zero, one of the two guys who got me into Bitcoin back in 2012, and a dear friend of mine, Charles Cascarilla, now CEO of @Paxos— enjoy!
Which of the following is more important for a country?
Stablecoins and Sovereignty: How the U.S. Could Use Digital Dollars to Expand Global Dollar Hegemony and Create Trillions in Treasury Demand There is genius in the madness. open.substack.com/pub/michaelnic…
This may not be the kind of topic you’d expect to find on my Substack. However, it’s something that has been puzzling me for a while and keeps resurfacing in conversations, decisions, meetings, markets, and negotiations. So, I wanted to share a few thoughts and offer a lens…
Η #Ελλάδα έχει τη μοναδική ευκαιρία να πρωτοστατήσει στην επανάσταση των #crypto και του #blockchain. Με χαμηλή φορολογία & φιλικό ρυθμιστικό πλαίσιο, μπορούμε να προσελκύσουμε ταλέντα, τεχνολογία & επενδύσεις, χτίζοντας το ευρωπαϊκό Silicon Valley. #Innovation #Greece2030…
#peoplearelosingtheirminds
🚗⚖️ Tesla Owners Sue Over Brand’s Political Association A group of Tesla owners in France is suing the company, claiming its association with far-right politics has damaged their reputation. They seek to terminate leases and recover legal costs, citing Musk's political support…
Reminder: In 2008, TARP was $700bn
Imagine fintwit if this was a U.S. headline…
Why Comparing U.S. 5-Year CDS to Greece and Italy is Deeply Misguided A chart has been circulating that shows the 5-year Credit Default Swap (CDS) for the United States—currently rated AA+/AA+—trading at approximately 50 basis points (as we speak this spreads have changed a…
Stupidity travels fast. If the US even hints at defaulting on its debt, watch every other country sprint to default first. Very few understand the role of the US dollar and the US treasury market in the global economy.
Credit default swaps on US government debt are hitting some of the highest levels since 2008, per FT:
Europe loves to preach green energy, but here’s the twist: Germany shut down its cleanest, most reliable energy source: nuclear. Meanwhile, China is building nuclear plants at record speed. So… is Europe really going green? Or is this just another economic illusion dressed up…
I’m confused. On April 16th, China announced a world-leading +5.4% GDP growth YOY in Q1. But, the headline today reads: ‘China’s PBOC unveils a comprehensive easing package to STABILIZE its economy and market expectations.’ As I’ve said before, BONDS DON’T LIE. #China #Crisis
Citadel Founder Ken Griffin: Don’t Be the Smartest in the Room "If you go work in a firm and you're the smartest person in the room, you have so screwed up your Stanford MBA. I will walk into a room at Citadel. On any given topic, I guarantee you I am not the smartest guy in…
My recent talk at Sui Basecamp...enjoy! youtu.be/vAwMwsFVr7g
Trump is destroying Treasuries and we've got the math!!!!! Bberg: "The result is a heightened notion of risk that’s leading bond buyers to question the traditional haven status of US government debt and require higher yields on longer maturities." It's all made-up BS.…