Max Miller
@mjmill611
Finance AP @HarvardHBS. PhD @Wharton. Asset pricing, household finance, and political economy. History, sports, and chess fan. Cats are Crackers and Brie.
Matching frictions are real 🤣 This is my fourth attempt at hiring a Predoc—the first three were snatched up by much fancier folks (would have done the same) Hoping fourth time’s the charm! Link here (no visa sponsorship☹️): sjobs.brassring.com/TGnewUI/Search…
🚨I'm hiring a full-time Predoc at HBS!🚨 Come do research w/ me on labor market frictions & employment policies in low-income countries 🌍 Research: liviaalfonsi.com/research 👌 for future Econ/PP PhD applicants Apply here: sjobs.brassring.com/TGnewUI/Search…
Pinker on Harvard. Great oped in NYT. nytimes.com/2025/05/23/opi…
This is not the right way to look at the issue in my opinion. Nobody is denying that transaction B is better for you than transaction A, but in practice you don't face a choice between transaction A and transaction B, because except in the case of gifts people don't give up…
In a voluntary transaction both sides are better off because otherwise they wouldn't transact. Ok. Voluntary transaction A: You buy a widget from me for $100 (trade deficit). Voluntary transaction B: I give you the widget for free (trade surplus). Voluntary transaction A is…
Despite what you may have heard, US social spending has been steadily *increasing*, not decreasing
On the Japan so called deal (diktat?). Trump can win many fights, but one thing he cannot do is win fights against accounting identities. Trade deals, whatever they do, cannot, as claimed, simultaneously reduce the US current account deficit, and increase net capital flows to the…
Awesome paper. Great example of how "null" results can be super informative when they come from a credible research design!
🚨 New NBER working paper: "The Impact of Unconditional Cash Transfers on Parenting and Children" This paper estimates the effects of receiving a $1,000/month guaranteed income for 3 years, compared to a control group receiving $50/month, on children and parents in the US. 1/
Proposing an explanation on the decline of sovereign debt yields based on a decline in inflation and default risk, from @mjmill611, James D. Paron, and Jessica Wachter nber.org/papers/w34021
Can an AI model predict perfectly and still have a terrible world model? What would that even mean? Our new ICML paper formalizes these questions One result tells the story: A transformer trained on 10M solar systems nails planetary orbits. But it botches gravitational laws 🧵
Vaccination generally, the MMR vaccine specifically, thimerosal in vaccines, mercury in vaccines... None of it is associated with autism across cohort studies.
Coding with AI has revealed that most of the thing that makes programming hard isn't writing the code down but getting to a point of conceptual clarity. Previously the only way to get there was by fighting through writing the code, so it got conflated with programming itself.
NYC has been 30-40% foreign born since literally forever there has never been a time when it was not full of fresh immigrants
40 percent of New York City's population is foreign born. Not just second and third generation immigrants. Foreign born. Almost half the city wasn't born in this country. NYC isn't an American city anymore by any reasonable definition of the term. It's a tragedy and a disgrace.
publication day of our new book with @augustinlandier ! We make an ultra-simple point: it is not possible to think about economics separately from moral values, and it's okay. We argue that moral tradeoffs are everywhere, and they must be confronted head-on.
In their new book, @HECParis professor @augustinlandier and MIT Sloan professor @dthesmar explore our desire to be good, the personal costs of being good, and the point at which people abandon goodness due to its costs. bit.ly/3HReJfs
Tyrese Haliburton Torn Achilles at 25 Jayson Tatum Torn Achilles at 27 The NBA needs to shorten the season, These dudes arent even in their 30's and they're getting these career threatening injuries
Technically, it’s the risk neutral probability of a detonation…
There's now a 1 in 6 chance of a nuclear weapon detonating this year. It's been nice knowing y'all.
Predocs! Philipp Schnabl @schnabl_econ and I are once again hiring a full-time RA. Come work with us on banking and macro finance. We'll review applications on a rolling basis. @econ_ra #EconTwitter
Opportunity to work with @NYUStern Professors Philipp Schnabl (@schnabl_econ) and Alexi Savov (@AlexiSavov), who conduct research in financial intermediation, asset pricing, and macro-finance. Apply now! bit.ly/4jKecZP
Latest @The_Budget_Lab analysis on tariffs is out! TL/DR, decision invalidating most of Trump tariffs is a big deal. Effective tariff rates are down to 6.9%. Still highest they've been since 1969. But way lower than where they were before (21.9%).
Yesterday's US Court of International Trade decision invalidates the recent tariffs imposed under IEEPA, including the "reciprocal" tariffs & most tariffs on China, Canada, & Mexico, leaving only the Section 232 commodity tariffs in place. What are the economic implications? 1/8
RFK Jr. says his “Make America Healthy Again” Commission report harnesses “gold-standard” science. Its citations, however, are rife with errors, from broken links to misstated conclusions -- and seven of the cited sources don't appear to exist at all. notus.org/health-science…
This is psychotic. Scott Jenkins took $75K in bribes—in wads of cash—from rich businessmen who wanted fake police badges so they could flash them, carry guns, and dodge the rules. Can MAGA please stop pretending to care about law and order?
On US tariff uncertainty. Suppose (incorrectly) that by the end of the 90 day period, there is a "concept of a deal" with every country in the world. Then, remember that, historically, from the beginning of negotiations, it has taken on average 1.5 years to sign a trade…