Mohammad Ali Shabani
@mashabani
Editor @Amwajmedia (#Iran #Iraq #Peninsula). I'm here to learn.
BIG: Something major is happening among Shiite groups in #Iraq and #Yemen. They're not only talking abt hitting #Israel. They're warning that if the US directly intervenes in Gaza, American targets in the region will also be hit—from multiple fronts. amwaj.media/article/deep-d…
NEW: Israel's attack on Iran undoubtedly sparked a "rally-around-the-flag" effect, which did not surprise most observers. But barely a month later, Khamenei is basically telling hardliners to stop sniping at Pezeshkian's Reformist govt. They never learn. amwaj.media/en/media-monit…
Turkey may already access nukes via NATO's nuclear weapons sharing policy. But scenario where Turkey follows Iran in developing an independent nuclear deterrent may actually bring stability to the region. Israel may tone it down while lines of Turko-Iranian contestation freeze.
Iran getting a nuclear weapon would help create a justification for this that would reduce the political cost.
From @WSJopinion: A recent CNN poll put the Democrats’ favorable rating at a record low—29%. They have only themselves to blame, writes @KarlRove. on.wsj.com/3Iwio2t
In Iran, a presidential inspector has told reporters that Pezeshkian's three-car convoy to Tabriz was sold watered-down gasoline en route. So apparently, they ended up having to take a taxi to reach the destination. If true, level of governance seems to be dropping to new lows
A look back at President Ahmad al-Sharaa's activities in #Syria when he was the head of al-Nusra or al-Qaida in Syria, his relations with #ISIS and with the #Druze.
An important glimpse into Ahmad Al-Sharaa’s militant history of violent consolidation and betrayal, thanks to @MalathAlzoubi for putting it together. • In 2014, the Al-Nusra Front organization led by Ahmed Al-Sharaa attacked the Syrian Revolutionary Front of the Free Army and…
Technological development has been insane.
Lebanese Shi'a Amal militiamen stop and watch the 1986 FIFA World Cup Morocco VS Portugal. 11 June 1986. 🇱🇧
Would be careful with these reports, particularly after the Biden years when purportedly furious US officials ran to @axios to express grave annoyance and then continued to underwrite Israeli war crimes in Gaza.
🚨The Israelis were surprised by the U.S. pushback over the Syria strikes 🚨A senior Israeli official said Trump had encouraged Netanyahu to hold parts of Syria during his first weeks in office and hadn't previously expressed concerns about Israel's interventions in the country…
One way of reading this is that Trump seems to be waking up to reality that bombing declared sites doesn't "obliterate" a nuclear program.
As I have continuously argued, hype over Fordow is a red herring. If Iran weaponizes its nuclear program, declared nuclear sites are unlikely to play any role. Therefore, apparent purpose of focusing on Fordow is to drag in Trump by saying the US only needs to bomb one site.
Saudi cleric Sheikh Muslih al-Alyani (close to HTS) during Friday's sermon in Idlib to Druze; you either flee to Israel or be in hands of our men
Here we see Al Qaeda terrorists under Syria's new leader Jolani/Sharaa film themselves in Sweidah, southern Syria, forcing three Druze men to jump from a building - while shooting them. I am all in favor of lifting sanctions on Syria that have strangled Syrian civilians. But the…
Report of the offer is accurate, @amwajmedia is told. However, assuming that Iran has any interest in extending E3 relevance via snapback power: -what, if anything, can E3 help deliver? (particularly since it has endorsed zero enrichment) -is offer genuine and not blame game?
In a call last night with @araghchi, E3 foreign ministers and @kajakallas put on the table the possibility of extending the deadline for snapback under the nuclear deal, according to sources. The asks of Iran were a resumption of nuclear talks with the US and E3 and...-1-
#Israel's Trojan Horse: The #Druze and the weaponization of minority solidarity ✍️I am looking at how Israel since December 2024 has been orchestrating information campaigns to exploit Druze grievances to legitimate IDF landgrabs in #Syria andreaskrieg.com/post/israel-s-…
Glad to share this piece, which I’ve put a lot of effort into over the past few months. It explores potential scenarios for how Israel, Turkey, and Iran’s interests might converge or diverge in Syria. I’ve tried to sketch out possible rivalries, as well as areas of cooperation…
For Israel, Iran, and Türkiye, an emerging Syria presents both threat and opportunity. @MohammedASalih presents five scenarios exploring how their tug-of-war for influence over Damascus might play out. newlinesinstitute.org/state-resilien…
Europe gets no respect in Asia! Whether the EU goes for the 18th round of sanctions or even the 30th, it doesn't matter.
An oil tanker, sanctioned by the EU and UK, is carrying Russian crude to India, loaded via ship-to-ship transfer near Malaysia. If India ignores EU sanctions, why is the EU pursuing an 18th round of sanctions on Russian oil? These sanctions have become a joke.
New post: my visit to the former Alawite village of Arza in Hama, whose inhabitants were massacred & expelled in March. Arza is now populated by some Sunnis from a nearby town called Khattab. The case of Arza raises very serious issues of accountability aymennaltamimi.com/p/photo-essay-…
This Iranian Nobel Laureate's initial reaction to Israel's military attack on Iran was silence, followed by condemnation of uranium enrichment (a position she later omitted as the public firmly backed the nuclear program). Safe to say her credibility is undermined if not gone.
NO TO TYRANNY AND NO TO WAR Iranian Civil and Political Activists Call for a Free Referendum and Democratic Transition In a joint statement issued today, 17 of Iran’s most prominent civil and political activists including imprisoned human rights defenders, veteran political…
No Iran and Hezbollah need to absolutely stay away from that place and be grateful that Turkey and GCC are now stuck with that absolute mess for decades to come.
Iran and Hezbollah need to take over Syria.
CBS cites US intelligence sources as confirming Israeli strike on meeting of Iran's Supreme National Council last month. President Pezeshkian was injured during escape. @amwajmedia has some details in quoted thread below: cbsnews.com/news/irans-pre…
New details on Israel's reported attack on meeting of Iran's highest decision-making council last month. Iranian media say strike happened in morning. But senior political insider reveals to @amwajmedia it was in PM and not all council members attended.. amwaj.media/en/media-monit…
🚨 COMING TOMORROW 🚨 Israel turned pagers into bombs. 37 killed. 3000 injured. Children disfigured. Civilians blinded. And western leaders called it “precise.” A new BreakThrough News documentary by @RaniaKhalek uncovers the truth behind Israel’s pager attack in Lebanon. Made…
My latest @The_NewArab article is about Trump’s Middle East policy six months into his second term. This piece quotes @AssalRad, @thomasjuneau, @andreas_krieg, @karimbitar, @CharlesWDunne, and @Azodiac83. newarab.com/analysis/trump…