Mark Ungewitter
@mark_ungewitter
Specialist
“I don’t necessarily agree with everything I say.” –Marshall McLuhan
DXY has ranged from +20% to -20% of purchasing power parity somewhat regularly since 1970. Great long-term perspective from @_rob_anderson
The U.S. Dollar Index has stabilized in recent weeks after plummeting during the first half of the year. From a PPP perspective, the dollar is no longer overvalued. However, prior secular tops saw the dollar overshoot, dropping to more than 20% undervalued in both 1987 and 2004.
It seems too soon for a cyclical top, following April's reset, but a pullback or consolidation, perhaps associated with negative seasonals, would be most unsurprising.
3 of 5 thoughts for the weekend Surprised that option #sentiment doesn't look extreme
History doesn't repeat, but it does rhyme. Despite the volatility the S&P 500 has been following the typical post-election year trend. The trend peaks in early August, and the year-end rally is weaker than normal. Why and is it relevant in 2025? A 🧵 @NDR_Research 1/7
SPX is due for a breather given volatility compression and seasonal headwind. Bull-market evidence is mounting, however, suggesting plenty of upside ahead. Nasdaq McClellan RASI, for example, just confirmed a fresh cyclical advance. Upshot? BTFD (buy the forthcoming dip).
"We are not living an era of change but a change of era." –Pope Francis
The de-dollarization trade is well baked, but probably not fully baked, according to this interesting study from @TimmerFidelity
The one “devil’s advocate” challenge to the otherwise unmistakably bullish narrative driving gold and Bitcoin is the question of how much of this fiscal dominance and de-dollarization playbook is already priced in. The combined value of above-ground gold and Bitcoin is now around…
Does DXY influence SPX/EAFE, or does SPX/EAFE influence DXY? Yes.
Nice chart johnsonfinancialgroup.com/resources/blog…
Signing off early. Great weekend, everyone! youtube.com/watch?v=bgmdnx…
Artistic heuristic.
So, what happens once when the last bite of the Big Yellow Banana is taken?
