Kit Lowe
@kit_lowe
Global Macro at InTouch Capital. Senior Analyst FI and FX. Former interbank spot FX trader, hedge fund PM and prop shop co- ceo. @kitlowe.bsky.social
All my RBA interest rate forecasts February 2020 to August 2023 . linkedin.com/pulse/rba-comm…
The easiest way is to separate the timing of both releases by a minimum of one hour. I said this a few years ago when they started releasing the monthly CPI. Every 3 months it got tangled with the quarterly release. In New Zealand NZ Stats release their Quarterly CPI number and a…
And the ABS will continue publishing the quarterly CPI, including seasonally adjusted measures, compiled on a different basis to the simple 3mth average of the monthly CPI. It could be a communications mess for the RBA for 18 months.
The speech by Governor Michele Bullock – The RBA’s Dual Mandate - Inflation and Employment – at the Anika Foundation Fundraising Lunch, in Sydney is always an important one as we get to hear questions from market economists which are normally only conducted in private…
Luckily today Australia was able to borrow $16bn until October 2036 at a yield of 4.36%.
A very important step towards reducing intergenerational inequality
The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) will keep its macroprudential policy settings steady following its latest review of domestic and international financial conditions and risks Taking into account these factors, APRA confirms that: - the mortgage serviceability…
$AUD Australia will begin publishing a complete monthly measure of inflation from Nov. 26, addressing a long-standing gap in the nation’s economic data. The first figures to be released will be for October. finally.
$JPY 10s30s curve has steepened from 90bps in Feb to 155bps on the close this week. About half of this was due to the surge in rice inflation which saw core/core CPI print at 3.4% yesterday. The other half is due to worries about fiscal policy as Japan’s ruling coalition faces…
Yes I told you in Feb that non- market jobs growth had peaked in Q4 2024 but you didn’t believe me at the time. Good to see you’ve corrected your error of using backward looking data.
Currently the Australian economy needs to generate 24,000 jobs each month just for the unemployment rate to stand still. With generally government funded jobs growth stalling out in Q1, the big question is what does government do now?
*TRUMP: PROBABLY 10 TO 15% FOR 150 COUNTRIES *TRUMP: WILL PUT OUT ONE NUMBER FOR 150 COUNTRIES $AUD #Straya
$NZD RBNZ paper out yesterday: An older population has contributed to lower neutral interest rates in recent decades and is expected to continue putting downward pressure on interest rates in the near term. Other factors could offset this impact, making projections of the neutral…
👀
TRUMP TOLD NBC NEWS THAT ALL REMAINING COUNTRIES WILL FACE TARIFFS, SAYING, "WE'RE JUST GOING TO SAY ALL OF THE REMAINING COUNTRIES ARE GOING TO PAY, WHETHER IT’S 20% OR 15%."
I would think that there is a 1 out of 8 chance that the RBA doesn't cut rates in August.
Boy did I get that wrong but at least 3 RBA board members agreed with me. 😀