Stephen Koukoulas
@TheKouk
Treasury, Head of Global Strategy TD, Advisor to PM, punter. Speaker at Ode Management - http://goo.gl/3Gj5VZ MD Market Economics; Also http://pinkpear.com.au
My 2025 calls: GDP H1 1.5%; solid recovery H2 2.75% Unemployment rate up; towards 4.75% Inflation hovers 2.25 to 2.75% Wages growth drops to 3% with downside risk RBA cuts 150bps 10 yr bonds to 3.75% AUD regains 70 as USD falls House prices keep falling -6% ASX200 weaker 7,500
RBA continuing with the theme: We don't believe the facts because our models produce different results. ICYMI
Governor Bullock looks back & continues to diss hard data on inflation & the labour market. The speech reinforced my view that it is historical data & not the outlook that guides RBA actions, even if it says something different to that. This is high risk. youtube.com/watch?v=C-A9ys…
Governor Bullock looks back & continues to diss hard data on inflation & the labour market. The speech reinforced my view that it is historical data & not the outlook that guides RBA actions, even if it says something different to that. This is high risk. youtube.com/watch?v=C-A9ys…
Bullock continues to caste doubt of data that does not fit the RBA narrative - such a bizarre way to run policy. Noting she said monthly CPI not reliable
Bullock playing down the significance of the June labour force report on its own.
A lot of backward looking chat from Ms Bullock... not much on the outlook
RBA Governor, Bullock is quite the hawk...time will tell whether the stance is justified....one thing is for sure, small businesses won't be thanking the board. Let's see how earnings season goes also $XJO
Relevant to today's CIS nonsense x.com/DrCameronMurra…
Does anyone read sources? I think everyone has heard this today: "More than half of voters now rely on governments for most of their income, through public-sector wages, welfare benefits or subsidies according to a new report by the Centre for Independent Studies, a…
Interesting data showing the greater the share of govt spending in the economy as a share of GDP, the higher the level of real GDP per capita. Makes sense to sober, open minded thinkers
Just to add to the debate about spending on social security. In 2022 (most recent data for Australia) we were the 6th lowest spender on cash benefits in the OECD, with only 4 lower income countries below us. And Ireland - but compare ratios of Gross National Income and GDP!
ICYMI Stop complaining about the rise in govt spending & recognise the benefits of the services the private sector would never deliver. That, or the whingers about the “size of govt” should opt out of the benefits they receive from the govt in their lives independentaustralia.net/politics/polit…
This is presented like it is a bad thing. Apart form the definitional & historical points of contention (there are many), reasonable folk would be alert and comfortable with the fact the govt has a role in the economy
'More than 50pc of voters now rely on government for their main income' afr.com/policy/economy…
"Likely" is doing a lot of unmeasured work here. The Parliamentary Library pointed out last week x.com/whobekindto/st… the share of the working age population receiving any income support is actually at a 45 year low. 2/4
Parliamentary Library policy brief on trends in working-age welfare receipt: 'In June 2023, close to 12% of the population aged 15–64 received income support payments—the lowest level in more than 45 years. June 2024 was only slightly higher at around 13%'
A very important step towards reducing intergenerational inequality
BREAKING: We've just introduced our legislation to cut student debt by 20%. Here's what it means for you.
ICYMI Great news with a detailed monthly CPI coming, but the existing release is actually pretty good
The comprehensive monthly inflation data is coming, but the current monthly data is actually pretty good. It is a mistake to downplay the inflation data that are in the current readings. youtube.com/watch?v=9c3ba0…
2028 Federal election betting: Illiquid market at this stage but current odds. Labor $1.40 Coalition $3.00 Via @Betfair
Anthony Albanese has, today, overtaken John Gorton to be Australia's 14th longest serving Australian Prime Minister (out of 31). In March 2026, he will overtake Curtin and Morrison to move to number 12.
Really weird definitions and "facts" here. Australian housing is so "impossibly unaffordable" that around 500,000 dwellings will be bought and sold this year, including 110,000 or so first home buyers
Australia: world’s most effective Housing UN-affordability Scheme Cheap money from the RBA, profligate bank lending, government subsidies lax foreign investment & loose anti money laundering laws have boosted the Demand & Price for Australian housing to world beating valuation…
The folly of a spending target for defence: Reclassify what's counted as 'defence spending'? Engineer a recession? Renovated the Defence Dept offices? independentaustralia.net/politics/polit…
The comprehensive monthly inflation data is coming, but the current monthly data is actually pretty good. It is a mistake to downplay the inflation data that are in the current readings. youtube.com/watch?v=9c3ba0…
Fixated on arbitrary defence spending targets, politicians are chasing percentages over practicality — even if it means redefining what 'defence' actually means. More bang for no bucks: Defence spending gets a rebrand ~ @TheKouk independentaustralia.net/politics/polit…