Kiel Institute (IfW Kiel)
@kielinstitute
Kiel Institute for the World Economy. Germany's institute for international economic research. http://ifw-kiel.de/legal-notice/ ; http://ifw-kiel.de/privacy/
Die EU beugt sich dem Druck von US-Präsident Donald Trump und stimmt Zöllen in Höhe von 15 Prozent zu. Der Handelsökonom Julian Hinz sieht Europa auf dem falschen Weg. trib.al/yXVtUld
„Die EU hätte den Spieß längst umdrehen können“: Hat sich die EU beim Zolldeal von #Trump über den Tisch ziehen lassen? Handelsexperte @julianhinz über bittere Ergebnisse – und bemerkenswerte Strategien. Interview @wiwo wiwo.de/politik/deutsc…
Instead of defending the rules-based trading system, the EU is entering into a deal whose durability is uncertain, which is governed by the whims of a populist administration, and which is not compatible with the rules of the World Trade Organization. 2/2
I agree with @ojblanchard1 The short-term economic costs of the deal with Trump are manageable for Germany and the EU, but there is no reason to cheer this trade policy appeasement. The higher costs will come later. 1/2
What I worried about has happened. A completely unequal “deal” between the US and the EU. Have no doubt: asymmetric 15% tariffs are a EU defeat. When the law of the jungle prevails, the weak have little choice than to accept their fate. But Europe could potentially have been…
Statt die regelbasierte Welthandelsordnung zu verteidigen, schlägt die EU in einen Deal ein, von dem unsicher ist, wie lange er hält, der von den Launen eines Populisten und nicht vom Recht regiert wird und der mit den Regeln der Welthandelsorganisation kaum vereinbar ist. 2/2
Die kurzfristigen ökonomischen Kosten des Deals mit Trump sind für Deutschland und EU beherrschbar, aber es gibt keinen Grund zum Jubeln über dieses handelspolitische Appeasement. Die höheren Kosten kommen später. 1/2
🇪🇺🇺🇸 EU-US deal in numbers. Details still pending, obviously, but one thing is clear: the EU chose lower short-term costs (no trade war) at the expense of WTO rules.
🇪🇺🇺🇸 EU-US deal in numbers. Details still pending, obviously, but one thing is clear: the EU chose lower short-term costs (no trade war) at the expense of WTO rules.
Berechnungen vom @ifo_Institut und @kielinstitute zeigen, wie stark ein EU-Zoll-Deal mit Trump die deutsche Wirtschaft treffen würde - und warum ein 15 Prozent-Deal kaum besser wäre als ein 30-Prozent-Deal: handelsblatt.com/politik/intern…
🆕 How trade liberalisation erodes the advantage of political connections Today on VoxDev, @SJavervall (@kielinstitute) & @RozaKhoban (@econ_uzh) discuss how tariff cuts in India reduced firms' reliance on political connections: voxdev.org/topic/trade/ho…
📢 Join the next Kiel-CEPR Research Seminar! Daniel Neuhann will present on how governments should structure primary sovereign bond markets when investors face asymmetric uncertainty about default risk and total demand 👉 ifw-kiel.de/institute/even…
New Publication: We highlight the role of convergence in projections of climate damages, showing it moderates both the level and distribution of climate change impacts. doi.org/10.1016/j.enec…
New at JIE: "Asset price changes, external wealth and global welfare" by Timothy Meyer (@TimothyAMeyer) doi.org/10.1016/j.jint…
Amazing. Do us all a big favor and keep up the great work.
Very happy to see my paper now out at the JIE! I'm very thankful for the constructive feedback from the editor and referees, and for the invaluable support from @MSchularick and @farzado throughout the process.
Simulations with the KITE Model show a joint response would raise U.S. costs by 34% vs. no retaliation—reaching ~60% of the effect of a global reaction. In contrast, going it alone is less effective and riskier, esp. for integrated economies like 🇨🇦 & 🇲🇽 👇
The US is playing countries off against each other. A coalition of the 🇪🇺,🇨🇦,🇲🇽,🇧🇷 & 🇰🇷 could put real pressure on Washington with a joint response. They would have strong leverage against tariffs. Read more in the new KPB 👉 ifw-kiel.de/publications/a… @MSchularick @julianhinz…
The US is playing countries off against each other. A coalition of the 🇪🇺,🇨🇦,🇲🇽,🇧🇷 & 🇰🇷 could put real pressure on Washington with a joint response. They would have strong leverage against tariffs. Read more in the new KPB 👉 ifw-kiel.de/publications/a… @MSchularick @julianhinz…
Die 🇺🇸 spielen Länder gegeneinander aus. Eine Koalition aus 🇪🇺, 🇨🇦, 🇲🇽, 🇧🇷 & 🇰🇷 könnte mit gemeinsamer Reaktion echten Druck auf Washington ausüben. Großer Hebel gegen Zölle. Mehr im neuen #KielPolicyBrief 👉 ifw-kiel.de/publications/a… @MSchularick, @julianhinz @ckhead…
📢 Kiel-CEPR Research Seminar - today, Christoph Böhm (@UTAustinEcon) presents joint work w/ @nityanayar on dynamic gains from trade. Both are currently in Kiel teaching in the ASP program! 🔗 Don’t miss future talks - register here for the series 👉 ifw-kiel.de/institute/even…
Martin Wolf at the FT covers our recent Kiel study on "How Europe can replace US support" in detail. Kudos to the Ukraine Tracker Team, especially Giuseppe, Ivan and Taro: ft.com/content/b9d7c6…