Stephen Miran
@SteveMiran
Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers // President Trump 47 WH // America is back
A lot of people really want to read their preferred political narrative into the inflation data, but they remain stubbornly unaffected by tariffs. The same goods categories that had a modest bounce in June in the US also bounced across North America and the UK. Not tariff driven.
Many commenters are confusing relative price changes with inflation. There will always be some of the former, but still no sign of material shift in the latter. Nevertheless, narrowing in on core goods, we see larger inflationary increases in Mexico, Canada, and the UK.
Since President Trump took office, core CPI has been tracking 2.1% annualized, levels not seen since the first Trump Administration, when inflation was low and stable. Headline CPI has been tracking 1.8%.
Whatever your view of tariffs, you must concede that, thus far, there is no evidence that they have caused any economically meaningful inflation—and whatever aggregate effect they may have is being swamped by the cross-currents that were driving inflation previously.
Similar analysis for CPI shows imported goods have deflated -0.8% while overall goods prices have remained constant. Read @CEA47's full report and methodology here under "Imported Goods Have Been Getting Cheaper Relative to Domestically Produced Goods": whitehouse.gov/cea/informatio…
Heed not the panicans
.@CEA47 Chairman @SteveMiran: "Lots of folks said that @POTUS' historic tariffs on China during the first term were going to be terrible for the economy. There was no lasting evidence of that whatsoever ... and thus far again, this time, we've repeated the same performance."
CPI has been running at 1.5% annualized over the President’s term thus far but the rest of it 👍🏻
Based on recent data: OBBB passed in June. Tariff revenue up 109% to $96.9B. Regulations cut via bill. Tax incentives enacted. Trade talks ongoing with China et al. Gas prices avg. $3.17/gal, down 7% YoY. Jobs +147K in June, unemployment 4.1%. Inflation at 2.4%, stable. Claims…
🇺🇸 Happy Fourth of July 🇺🇸 -OBBB has passed -Tariff revenue is pouring in -Red tape is being cut -Huge incentives to invest in America -Countries lining up to make trade concessions -Gas prices are way down -Job creation is healthy -No sign of economically meaningful inflation
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Jobs day beat for the 4th month in a row: - NFP +147k, beating 78/79 surveyed economists - Unemployment down to 4.1% from 4.2% - Native-born employment +2,079,000 since Jan; foreign-born -543,000. For the same months last year, foreign-born workers accounted for ~48% of new jobs
How The One Big Beautiful Bill helps America's seniors with the largest tax break in US history: Under the OBBB, 51.4 million seniors (88% of all whom receive Social Security income) will pay no tax on their Social Security. More 👇 @RapidResponse47
The One Big Beautiful Bill will boost economic growth and wages and, in conjunction with President Trump’s economic policies like tariffs, deregulation and energy abundance, reduce debt as a share of GDP from 117% in CBO’s tax hike baseline to below 94%
New CEA analysis of the Senate version of the One Big Beautiful Bill finds that it will raise economic growth, boost wages and take-home pay, and lead to reduced deficits and a lower federal debt burden.
President Trump’s policies are creating new opportunities for Americans. What a turnaround 👇
Native-born workers now account for all job gains since January. For the same months in the last two years, foreign-born workers accounted for ~2/3 of new jobs... 2/5
Jobs day, another beat. And net gains were entirely driven by the private sector. Private payrolls rose +140K in May, beating market expectations of 120K. Unemployment (4.2%) was the same as April. 🧵1/5
It was a delight meeting with Minister Cuerpo to discuss both the US-Spain and US-EU partnerships. A wonderful end to several days of productive meetings.
Productive conversation with Stephen Miran @SteveMiran, Chair of U.S. Council of Economic Advisers on shared economic priorities and the importance of the transatlantic relationship 🇪🇺 🇺🇲
El presidente del Consejo de Asesores Económicos de EE.UU., @SteveMiran, se reunió con @joseluisescriva, gobernador del @BancoDeEspana, durante su primera visita oficial a España. Dialogaron sobre asuntos de interés para ambos países.
New from CEA: The One Big Beautiful Bill will turbocharge the economy - just like in President Trump’s first term Boosts GDP by 4.2% to 5.2% Creates about 7 million new jobs Raises take-home pay for a typical family of 4 by about $8000 to $13,000
President Trump's tax bill (aka, the Big Beautiful Bill) wouldn't just avoid a catastrophic recession by extending the 2017 tax cuts, but will provide much needed tax relief for businesses & households. CEA estimates a massive boon for growth, investment, and take-home pay 👇1/9
MUST READ 🧵
President Trump's tax bill (aka, the Big Beautiful Bill) wouldn't just avoid a catastrophic recession by extending the 2017 tax cuts, but will provide much needed tax relief for businesses & households. CEA estimates a massive boon for growth, investment, and take-home pay 👇1/9
Jobs day, and another beat! Nonfarm payroll employment came in at 177,000 for the month of April, exceeding market expectations by 40,000. The unemployment rate was steady at 4.2%.
“President Trump and his administration are focused on creating the best economy America has ever had,” @SteveMiran tells @lizrhoffman in response to Ken Griffin's earlier comments on America's "eroding" brand. “I think Americans, CEOs, and workers alike are all going to be…