Dan O'Brien
@danobrien20
Chief economist, Institute of International and European Affairs, senior fellow at UCD. Speaker/presenter: conferences, management teams, etc. http://iiea.com
Usually it’s the economics of programmes for government I watch most closely. Now it is national security - Europe is no longer at peace. Hoping that big changes will be committed to. Ireland is almost unique in that it has abundant resources. No excuses for further neglect.
Larry Donnelly sets out bluntly the forces Ireland faces as it pursues the OTB. As a legal scholar he points out that international law is less likely to be cited in US courts in relation to Israel/Palestine than the old testament. On the potential economic impact of enacting…
🗣️ "Can I just be blunt with you? International law in United States courts means absolutely nothing." 🗣️ "When you poke the Israeli lobby in the United States – they come back with an M16." #TonightVMTV | @LarryPDonnelly
And here, somebody who actually knows a bit about how the world and its most powerful country work. The misreading of the rapidly changing international environment by most Irish politicians is also to be seen in the EU role in rearmament against the transformed Russian threat.…
🗣️ "The perception of Ireland as an anti-semitic country is hugely on the rise in the United States." @LarryPDonnelly on how the Occupied Territories Bill is being received by US media and politicians. #TonightVMTV
Summary *American politicians who criticised Ireland over OTB don’t grasp its nuances *Symbolic and pioneering legislation *It will free other countries to follow us *Direct economic impact for Ireland will be very, very small *Impact for US companies of complying with US…
🗣️ "The threat of political pressure, political bullying. That threat is not going to work with the Irish people." @ShayBrennan discusses fully explaining the Occupied Territories Bill to US counterparts, Anti-BDS laws in America, and political pressure. #TonightVMTV
Yet another new threat.
Trump says that if drug companies don’t lower their prices he will ban Europe from selling cars in the US
No doubt well intentioned, but this letter reflects too-common delusions and, frankly, narcissism that exists in Ireland about the country's role in the Middle-East. 'It is beyond time to revive the Ireland-US diplomatic and political exchanges of the John Hume era. Not all…
Car-maker has considerably higher sales than chip-maker. The chip-maker is worth 80 times the car-maker (and happens to be the most valuable company in history).
One reason tariffs haven't affected the stock market more is that they primarily affect the "old economy". GM has $187B in sales but a market cap of just $50B, while Nvidia has $135B in sales and a market cap of $4.1 trillion. GM is much more exposed to tariffs than Nvidia.
The submission I'd make here is simple. The employment permit system cannot solely be about "the needs of the sectors and industries it serves". It must also consider the impact on housing demand. For too many years demand has far exceeded supply, even as it also grows.
The Government has announced the opening of a consultation period to allow stakeholders make submissions on the work permit occupations lists rte.ie/news/ireland/2…
Trump is not an isolationist. But he wants America to be reimbursed for its efforts to run large parts of the world. That's what the tariffs are for. You sign up for the US-led order? You have to pay for these services.
Zelensky ignored the protests and signed the law. Fateful decision.
Protesters in Kyiv today chant “veto the law,” urging Zelensky not to sign the abruptly passed legislation that dismantles Ukraine’s independent anti-corruption bodies.
Ukraine lost its independence in the past because of strife and division at home. The sudden law to dismantle independent anti-corruption bodies, if signed by Zelensky, has the potential to spark the country’s first political crisis since the war began — and to prompt some…
Zelensky in 2019, shortly after being elected – and still active on his Facebook page: "We will never overcome corruption if you keep turning a blind eye to it. Are you being asked for a bribe? Being offered a 'kickback'? Please, don't stay silent! Contact the NABU hotline – 0…
Noteworthy
This is outstanding. More companies should build and invest in the US. After all, Americans fund it all: AstraZeneca unveils $50 billion US investment as pharma tariff threat looms | Reuters reuters.com/sustainability…
Politicians always say that capital spending will be maintained even if the economy tanks. That can happen when recessions are mild, but as soon as choices have to be made between capital and current spending, politicians will always sacrifice capital. That's an iron law of…
Unusual for an international organisation such as the @WorldBank to publish such a dramatic warning. And to think, less than five years ago, some seemingly serious people had come to believe that a magic money tree had been found, and along with it a forever cure for austerity.…
Going by some comments, some don't understand just how vulnerable most undersea infrastructure is. #Baltic Connector taken out by a bandy old container ship simply dragging anchor. €40m worth of damage & no gas for 5 months. Same risk with ship "repair" vessel & subsea cables.
Large increase in #Russian "shadow ships" making use of #Ireland's sparsely monitored EEZ. I saw this risk building, I was invited onto national radio 2 yrs ago & I explained it. Russia will exploit weakness anywhere it sees them in Northern Europe. rte.ie/radio/radio1/c…
Thanks to folk at @Independent_ie for correcting this piece from Saturday re my un-invitation from the Foreign Affairs Committee. These are the facts of what the committee told me when withdrawing the invitation. 'The hearing did not go ahead because the committee was not…
As the Corrib gas field depletes, down 15% in just a year, ever more gas has to be imported via the sole pipeline from Britain. Today's @CSOIreland data show imports now account for more than four fifths of total gas supply. Countries usually seek to address vulnerabilities.…
Important intervention from an MEP from the senior coalition partner. As TK Whitaker said of the Irish state's historic approach to security and defence, it has been like driving uninsured. Not having insurance saves you money...until one day it doesn't.
Important intervention from an MEP from the senior coalition partner. As TK Whitaker said of the Irish state's historic approach to security and defence, it has been like driving uninsured. Not having insurance saves you money...until one day it doesn't.
Can we now acknowledge that “a wing and a prayer” isn’t a policy for our security and defence. We can’t continue to hope that everything will be ok. There are real risks to our security and economic wellbeing. Not having sufficient energy security, is gravely irresponsible.
Ireland was always a soft target. But as Europe hardens its defences and Russian options are constrained, Ireland becomes relatively more vulnerable. It is inevitable that we will see more unfriendly activity. And our neighbours will soon get tired of bailing us out.
Number of Russian ‘shadow ships’ in Irish-controlled waters rises dramatically irishtimes.com/ireland/2025/0…
Superb post on the kind of measures that could be taken if the EU-US trade dispute deepens and widens.
Brussels is signaling readiness for a full-blown trade war if Trump moves forward with above-10% tariffs on Aug. 1 rather than striking a deal. This would be counterproductive for both sides. Thoughts on costs and getting to yes: 1. First, much like the trade war the US had with…