Ulrich Speck
@ulrichspeck
Foreign policy analyst for NZZ and elsewhere. Buch zu Russland und China: https://www.droemer-knaur.de/buch/ulrich-speck-der-wille-zur-weltmacht-9783426560655
Heute erschienen: Mein Buch über die Zusammenarbeit von Russland und China gegen die freiheitliche Ordnung — „Der Wille zur Weltmacht“. Die Einleitung kann man bei Amazon lesen („Leseprobe“). amazon.de/Wille-zur-Welt…
“10% is the new zero and tariffs are up but not as much as feared. Markets? Well, happy because Trump front-loaded bad news so anything less than super bad is "good" news.” @Trinhnomics
Trump trade deals so far: #1 The UK, 10% reciprocal with sectoral reprieve, esp auto at 10% with quotas #2 Vietnam, 20% (vs 46% threat) tariff w/ 40% punishment for transhipment #3 Indonesia, 19% vs 32% threatened #4 The Philippines, 19% vs 20% threatened but was actually 17%…
Trump trade deals so far: #1 The UK, 10% reciprocal with sectoral reprieve, esp auto at 10% with quotas #2 Vietnam, 20% (vs 46% threat) tariff w/ 40% punishment for transhipment #3 Indonesia, 19% vs 32% threatened #4 The Philippines, 19% vs 20% threatened but was actually 17%…
If Israel would have always listened to its European friends, it probably wouldn't exist anymore.
SPIEGEL: Today’s NATO negotiations to deliver Patriots to Ukraine will no longer be led by the SACEUR (an American), but rather a General in Mons (a German). If the talks don’t yield results, it’s possible that 🇩🇪 DM Pistorius will call Hegseth spiegel.de/politik/deutsc…
Es braucht einen klugen Mix aus Masse und Hochwertsystemen, etablierten Plattformen und neuen Fähigkeiten. Konkret braucht es dringend mehr Weltraumfähigkeiten, Deep Strike Waffensystemen, Cyber- und SIGINT-Fähigkeiten, KI, Drohnen und UGVs in sehr großen Stückzahlen.
Verteidigungsbereit kann nur sein, wer technologisch ganz vorn ist. Man darf mit neuen Schulden nicht die Dinge kaufen für die Bundeswehr, für die man vor 10 Jahren das Geld nicht hatte, sondern muss in die Zukunft denken.
First to Japan, than to China. That's the right order.
Today we are launching our 🇪🇺🇯🇵 Competitiveness Alliance: • Increased trade between us • Strengthened economic security, with robust rare earths supply chains • Accelerated work on innovation, clean tech and digital ↓
Plus @noahbarkin and @ajwsmall
Read @fbermingham for best insight on 🇪🇺 🇨🇳 dynamics👇🏻
The crux for Brussels. The 15% tariff Japan got is a much more likely template for the EU than the US-UK deal. The UK is an industrial dwarf (with royals and golf courts Trump likes). The EU is more like Japan: the bloc will get higher tariffs or it must risk retaliating.
Does pose a decision for the EU -- would the EU prefer to settle for a similar 15% base tariff, or take its chances on August 1 and risk a cycle of escalation after the EU retaliates in an effort to get a more balanced result? 3/
Die deutsch-französischen Hauptstreitpunkte laut Politico Berlin Playbook: - Paris will Geld von Deutschland für AKWs - Paris will das gemeinsame Kampfflugzeug zu 80% alleine bauen - Paris will Schutz für französische Landwirte im Mercosur-Abkommen Kein guter Start.
Die politische Lage an der Ostflanke der NATO bleibt extrem angespannt, aber Tschechien und Deutschland haben verstanden: Wir stärken die NATO. Wir stärken die Ukraine. Und wir erhöhen gemeinsam den Druck auf Russland. Danke, dass wir so gute Beziehungen haben, lieber @P_Fiala.
A softer version of "strategic autonomy"
VDL speech at Keio Uni, Tokyo - returns to theme of independence from Aachen. "I'm of the view that the period we're in now – and the way we handle it – will define the rest of this century. That means we simply can't accept to be shaken around by seismic change we're facing...
Don't think Manila will necessarily repivot to China, because our foreign policy shouldn't just go to the highest bidder. But the lack of better treatment for US allies vs non-aligners (esp compared to the original Liberation Day margins) is not doing anybody favors.