Alp Simsek
@alpsimsek_econ
Finance professor at the Yale School of Management. Research in macroeconomics and finance. Tweets in English and Turkish.
1/ New paper: "FCI-star" with Ricardo Caballero and @TomasCaravello We introduce FCI*—the neutral level of financial conditions that closes the output gap Think of it as the analogue of r*, but for the broader financial conditions that actually drive monetary transmission
Harvard announcement: "Gita Gopinath returns to economics faculty after historic IMF leadership" news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/…
We're glad that @SecScottBessent has spent time on our website, and we'd be thrilled to talk to him and his team about our work All of our models are transparent because we want policymakers to engage with our analysis, and if they disagree with us -- we'd be keen to hear it
Bessent on Yale Budget Lab saying richest Americans will see their income rise by nearly 2% while lowest earning Americans will actually see incomes drop as a result of Trump's bill: "I actually went on their website. They're all ex-Biden officials, so I think we can discount…
A relevant paper, presenting a possible improvement over the useless r-star. To be scrutinsed and to be used with care in case it proves to be robust, as monetary policy is too complex to be decided on basis of rules or stylised indicators.
Thanks @nberpubs! Here's a thread breaking down our methodology and key findings - including why FCI* stayed stable after 2008 while r* crashed, and how FCI gaps captured the 2022 policy shift before rate gaps: x.com/alpsimsek_econ…
Introducing FCI* (Financial Conditions Indices), the neutral level of financial conditions that closes output gaps. FCI gaps—difference between FCI and FCI*—better reflect monetary policy stance than rate gaps, from Ricardo J. Caballero, @tomycaravello, and @alpsimsek_econ…
Glad you found it interesting! Here's a thread breaking down the key findings: x.com/alpsimsek_econ…
Wow, super interesting! "FCI-star" by Ricardo J. Caballero, Tomás E. Caravello, and Alp Simsek. "We introduce FCI*, the neutral level of financial conditions that closes expected output gaps, within a framework where financial conditions and macroeconomic shocks drive economic…
New CEPR Discussion Paper - DP20362 FCI-Star Ricardo Caballero & Tomás Caravello @MITEcon, Alp Simsek @alpsimsek_econ @YaleSOM ow.ly/AFEb50WcHnG #CEPR_MEF #CEPR_AP #EconTwitter
The @realDonaldTrump Administration's vendetta action against Harvard is now over the top. It is crazy to make enemies of thousands of the most talented young people from around the world. This violates the norms of decency and fairness and will make us a poorer country and, in…
This is unlawful, un-American, and ultimately -- like so much we've seen recently -- will serve to make this country less great And from a President who just last year thought college grads should get green cards so we retain the brightest foreign talent nytimes.com/2025/05/22/us/…
I just finished meeting with one of our amazing international students who is graduating and was reflecting on their experience here. And then open this. What a horrible, horrendous thing to do—I hope it can be stopped quickly.