Natasha Sarin
@NatashaRSarin
Professor @YaleLawSch & @YaleSOM. Former Counselor (tax policy and implementation) at @USTreasury; Professor @PennLaw & @Wharton.
The IRS is outgunned, outmanned, outnumbered, outplanned. Single most imp tax reform is providing resources needed to police the $$$. My latest in @nytopinion ⬇️
“If the I.R.S. were able to collect the unpaid taxes that the top 1 percent owe — absent any increases in top tax rates or new system of wealth taxation — enough revenue would be generated to wipe out student debt for most people in this country.” nytimes.com/2020/10/02/opi…
From @portereduardo, @RameshPonnuru and @NatashaRSarin: Why the immigration crackdown is growing unpopular wapo.st/44zDqWy
From @portereduardo, @RameshPonnuru and @NatashaRSarin: Why the immigration crackdown is growing unpopular wapo.st/44zDqWy
Fully exempting home sales from tax would represent yet another inframarginal transfer to older, richer Americans. Something close to 90% of homeowners are already exempt. The only people paying tax are worth around $6M on average. Some new @The_Budget_Lab calculations below:
Guys at some point we are going to have to tax SOMETHING I’m just saying
Great to be with @abbydphillip @CNN NewsNight last night on the dangers of politicizing the Federal Reserve. Watch here: youtu.be/z86GA4OnRbw
TONIGHT: New data shows rising inflation as Trump’s tariffs start to weigh on the economy -- Attorney General Pam Bondi dismisses questions about the ‘Epstein files’ as MAGA backlash continues -- & House Republicans hand Trump a setback on crypto legislation. @SRuhle…
President Trump's focus on a Fed Chair who will slash rates is misguided even on his own terms: 1 The Fed Chair is 1 of 12 votes, a political hack Chair won't get majority 2 Even if FFR slashed the rates people care about, like mortgage, could go up w/ higher expected inflation
More tariffs, more @The_Budget_Lab analysis. Incl last night's Canada hike -- we are now up to effective tariff rate of 18.7%, up more than 16 percentage points since January.
New @The_Budget_Lab tariff analysis incorporating the 35% Canada tariffs, which go into effect August 1 (along with the 22 letters and the copper tariffs). In brief... 1/10
The heroes at the Yale Budget Lab are calculating tariff faster than Trump can change them. Right now the tariff rate is up +15.6 %-pts to 18 percent, roughly ten times that of other industrialized nations, and the highest since 1934. budgetlab.yale.edu/research/state…
Well, there goes any semblance of consistency -- The US runs a persistent trade surplus with Brazil, so you would think that Trump would like them ...
*TRUMP: RELEASING BRAZIL TARIFF NUMBER TODAY OR TOMORROW MORNING *TRUMP: BRAZIL HAS NOT BEEN GOOD TO US
I organized an economist amicus brief in V.O.S. Selections Inc. v. Trump, the "Liberation Day" tariffs case in which the government's appeal will soon be considered by the Federal Circuit Appeal Court.
One sometimes hears, "economists said tariffs would cause a recession but they haven't therefore economic models are wrong". 4 points: 1. Economic models, including this from Yale Budget Lab, generally have said growth down 0.5 to 1.0pp. By itself not enough for a recession.
• US real GDP growth over 2025 is -0.7pp lower from all 2025 tariffs. In the long-run, the US economy is persistently -0.4% smaller, the equivalent of $110B annually in 2024$. • The unemployment rate rises +0.4pp by the end of 2025, & payroll employment is -538,000 lower. 6/10
4. Roughly 1/2 percent of GDP is a big deal. That is about $1,000 per family per year (or $20,000 in present value). If the President asked every family to bring $1,000 to the mall and set fire to all of it that would be remembered as a really dumb policy. This should be too.
The methodology CEA used in constructing its import price index looks reasonable. 2 things to keep in mind when interpreting it: 1st, the assumption underlying the CEA report is that the right counterfactual to which to compare imported goods prices is domestic goods prices. /1
New @CEA47 research finds that the prices of imported goods have *fallen* this year, and declined faster than overall goods prices since Feb. More below 👇
Hot off @The_Budget_Lab presses, tariff update for today's letters. TL/DR: Effective tariff rates are up to 17.6%, about 2/3 of the way to the Liberation Day levels. Here are tariff swings since January.
New @The_Budget_Lab tariff analysis incorporating 1) the US-Vietnam framework announced July 2, and 2) the July 7 letters to 14 countries with new "reciprocal" tariff rates, which go into effect August 1. In brief... 1/10