Zachary Abuza

"The State Department fired its top experts on the South China Sea and shuttered the office with a key focus on Indo-Pacific security amid a sweeping reorganization earlier this month." npr.org/2025/07/24/nx-…

Put differently, Indonesia and the Philippines get 19% while Vietnam loses at 20% … and Thailand and the others risk getting left in the cold. So we are doing exactly what we have spent a decade accusing China of doing by playing each ASEAN country off against the other ...

[A really excellent analysis. Sebastian Strangio concludes: "But a comprehensive solution, which would require both nations to make concessions on issues that touch on keen nationalist sensitivities, would require more political capital than either government currently…

Launched Crisis & Community: Covid-19 in Malaysia at @GerakBudaya w/honoured guest @DrDzul, panelists @DrAmarMOH, @takterqyira, Dr Lyana Khairuddin, Dr Tan Hui Siu, contributors & great inputs from audience. Was a heartfelt, honest &, at times, hard discussion. More needed.

On the "Domestic Rivalry Theory" and the "International Family Feud Theory". I highly recommend this first rate analysis by ⁦@kenlmathis⁩. Do read. coffeeparliament.com/p/on-the-domes…

UPDATE: Thai Govt Confirms ASEAN-Led Talks with Cambodia Govt House says acting PM @phumtham, FM @AmbPoohMaris, Dep-Def Min Gen Nattaphon Narkphanit and PM Sec-Gen Prommin Lertsuridej will travel to Kuala Lumpur tomorrow for talks with Cambodian PM Hun Manet and delegation.

Ongoing 🧵of territorial changes in the Thailand-Cambodian clashes. Thai forces have advanced from multiple axes ~300m beyond the Cambodian frontline positions and towards the village of Ta Thav. They have also advanced to the edge of the plateau near Khao Sattasom.

Rancor with Washington over Australia's defense spend - and how deeply Australia can be integrated into U.S. strategic planning - reflects sharpening contradictions. This volume from me and a stellar group of authors digs into the future of the alliance. carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/…

As expected. This deal has been years in the making. Non-kinetic and sold to MPS, not the VPA. But an important sale for future market access.

Nvidia AI chips worth $1bn smuggled to China after Trump export controls, with Southeast Asia viewed as the weak link. ft.com/content/6f806f…

This genuinely surprises me. The level of tensions prior to this clash served the political interests of both sides. I really don’t see how this escalation helps #Cambodia.

Never fun to come back from leave, but holding the new book is kind of special. rienner.com/title/The_Viet…

Great political analysis about @ThaksinLive's latest -- "meddling in everything" -- a perfect description. coffeeparliament.com/p/meddling-in-…

Sorry, I was rushing out the door and was under caffeinated. The 4 men received the 3rd highest level of CPV discipline; and were not expelled. This is still quite symbolic in a system that gives significant influence to party elders. It’s not a hard landing, but not soft either.

5 senior CPV members have been expelled, including 2 former presidents, a DPM, and head of the parliament. One is no surprise, but 3 were all Gen Sec contenders. This is the highest level of discipline the Party can mete out. They’re now all poised for prosecution in the courts.