Vikram Nehru

In most of the world day-to-day weather variations are still much larger than long-term global warming. As a result, both daily record highs and daily record lows remain common. However as the world warms, new daily record highs consistently far outnumber new daily record lows.

Yikes indeed!

Europeans are being punished for the actions of American companies that have relocated to the EU (mainly Ireland) to avoid paying US corporate income tax rates. A sad commentary on the quality of thinking behind US trade policy.

Some of the charts from the Financial Times’ article marking six months in office for President Trump’s second term. #economy #markets @FT

Care of climatereanalyzer.org For the record, the anomaly of 6.818 standard deviations in a normal distribution would correspond to an event with frequency of about 1-in-216 billion. These are not normal times. Collapse incoming.

Picture this week published by NASA from the ISS…..

China #1, India #5, Indonesia #12 in global ranking among emerging markets for “FDI Confidence”. Asia has five countries in the top 12. China (including HK) remains on top despite the turbulence of its trade war with the US. That says a lot for China.

US tariffs on China went from 20% in January to 50% now. That's a huge rise in a short period and you can see the fallout in the collapse of China's direct exports to the US (black). China is doing lots of transshipments, but that's not a long-term solution for its exporters...

Ok, so Republicans just introduced a 900 page bill none of them have read. But my team is going through it line by line and on this 🧵you can see the hidden provisions we found. Will update all day. 1/ NEW Medicaid cuts, so now 17 million - instead of 16M - lose health care.

Excl Union Territories (UTs), the richest Indian state (Telangana) has an average per capita income 500% larger than the poorest (Bihar). Including UTs, the gap is 1000%. In comparison, the gap between the richest U.S. state (Massachusetts) and the poorest (Mississippi) is 75%.

Remember this chart

It is way too early to write any assessment of the full impact of President Trump's turn toward tariffs as a core tool of US economic policy. But there is no doubt that immediate impact was ... well ... a much bigger external deficit. 1/

The last 48 hours underscored that the safe haven characteristics of the Dollar are just fine. It rallied hard yesterday when it looked like the Middle East was blowing up. The fact that it's now falling is just markets returning to cyclical Dollar weakness. The Dollar is fine...

Tariffs are inflationary for the US, but deflationary for everyone else. You can see this in yesterday's flash PMIs for June. Output prices (blue) are up sharply for the US (top left), but doing nothing in the Euro zone (top right), UK (bottom left) and Japan (bottom right)...

Dream on …….. !

An amazing graph showing the extent to which American farms depend on migrant workers. If America can build bunker buster bombs to take out nuclear facilities 300 ft below hardened rock, surely it can seal its Southern borders and still legally allow migrant workers on its farms.

The U.S. average effective tariff rate has climbed to where it was 85 years ago (⁦@paulkrugman⁩). That it is well below the huge rates that prevailed through the 19th Century provides little comfort.

The Indian government is not the only Asian government seeking to rewrite history. asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Indon…

When the distributional effects of the “Big Beautiful Bill” are added to the distributional effects of tariffs, the result is even greater regressivity (is there such a word?). (Graph from ⁦@paulkrugman⁩)

⁩ The distributional effects of the BBB (Big Beautiful Bill) are shockingly regressive, according to the CBO. (Graph from ⁦⁦@paulkrugman⁩)