Douglas Orr, CFA
@EquitOrr
Founder CEO Endeavour Equity Strategy Macro /Research/ Technicals. Aust Treasury, Strategist ABN-AMRO. Ski, Ocean Swimming & Surf. Sydney Swans
Sunday rock Scramble @ Springbrook Pinnacles Goldcoast, Queensland Australia

🎯@clairlemon Is Australia's Resi bubble like Japan’s property bubble in late 1990s? What Caused the Japan property bubble? i) Too low interest rates ii) Money supply growth too high for too long iii) Tax Laws encouraging high debt & speculation => Very similar to Australian set…
Was talking to a seasoned real estate investor/landlord in Chicago last night. He told me he would never want to be exposed to Australia’s housing market - compared it to Japan in the ‘90s
RBA Gov Bullocks speech on “the Dual Mandate” – Neutral tone => Hawkish vs Dovish Consensus of 60bps of cuts expected by consensus. Bullock talked down inflation risks & increased labour tightness. We note she cited Unemployment at 4.2% for the quarter vs 4.3% for the noisy…

Look like RBA got what they paid for! Lowe went "line wolf" with real rates 200bps lower vs Canada + NZ => now Aust 45% more expensive!
How is this even possible?
Read this and the replies/notes. Spot on analysis. The way @JEChalmers & @AlboMP have rogered Gen-Z and Millennials in every respect, apart from a little HECS relief is a complete disgrace. Actually, traitorous may not even be too strong.
Australia: world’s most effective Housing UN-affordability Scheme Cheap money from the RBA, profligate bank lending, government subsidies lax foreign investment & loose anti money laundering laws have boosted the Demand & Price for Australian housing to world beating valuation…
Australain House prices are "Impossibly Unaffordable" on IMF Price to Income (median) ratios as outlined by Demographias Apr25 update => Median Income households have less opportunity to buy a home than any other 1st world country Investors are 40% of Housing Sales with Owner…
Australia: world’s most effective Housing UN-affordability Scheme Cheap money from the RBA, profligate bank lending, government subsidies lax foreign investment & loose anti money laundering laws have boosted the Demand & Price for Australian housing to world beating valuation…
Why is Australian housing “impossibly unaffordable”? Answer 1) Overly Cheap Money from the RBA plus 2) a string of Demand boosting Government subsides & weak foreign ownership & anti-money laudering laws.
Homelessness has risen to the "worst levels in living memory" in the first term of the Albanese government, advocacy groups warn, as the government grapples with advice that housing targets will not be met. ab.co/3IDfjha
Thx for the call out! The fact is + what IS weird is Australian Housing is in a world beating valuation bubble + 90% of economists in the press + fintwit are howling for 2-4 rate cuts now NB they never talk housing valuation or housing crisis despite the current crisis having…
Really weird definitions and "facts" here. Australian housing is so "impossibly unaffordable" that around 500,000 dwellings will be bought and sold this year, including 110,000 or so first home buyers
🎯@avidcommentator The Australian Property Bubble isnt the result of Capitalism.... Its the combined Result of Government Interference artifically boosting Demand >> Supply * RBA's Too Cheap money during pandemic & Govt gave banks $200bn @ 0% to loan at 2-3% * Demand…
It's sad hearing prospective first home buyers talk about their struggle to buy homes, even in regional areas I hear some blame capitalism This isn't capitalism Capitalism isn't the expectation of constant intervention to make number go up or pretend that bad loans are good
The parallels b/w Trump & Nixon are striking – have been saying this for >6mths... · Trump pressuring Powell to Cut => very similar to Nixon – pressured Burns to cut in 1971 – “the White House Cuts · Nixon introduced Tariffs at 10% · Republican Presidents riding a populist…

JUN-25 Aust Employment data => Hot jobs growth more “Hold” vs “3 x Cuts” Priced by market Red Hot Jobs growth numbers: * Jobs Growth accelerating to 2.8% y/y, 3.8% Qtly Annual * Full Time Hours Worked accelerated to 3.4% y/y * Vacancies Accelerating 2.8% y/y Albeit with…

🎯Mmmm looking increasingly risky - Japan could derail this entire thing @GuyAdami 10yr JGB highest in 30 years... Here is the "Carry Trade Inversion => for Ave of Japan & German Funding...
Japan is going to derail this entire thing
US Core CPI “underlying hot” due to Good prices, Services at 3.7%. Case for *not cuts* Fed gains momentum: US Inflation soft at 0.23% vs 0.3% expected – yet Bonds sell off materially due to the details = > companies passing on tariff costs to consumers. The “underlying hot”…
CARRY TRADE BUST? => Carry Trade Inversion an ongoing & major shift as Trump fights War on strong USD => slow moving trend Carry Trade Inversion has been “brought on” by: 1) “REGIME CHANGE” Trump/ Bessent wage WAR on Strong USD means at WAR with carry trade & 2) Japan…
