Scott Irwin
@ScottIrwinUI
Agricultural Economist at the University of Illinois; Lifelong fascination with commodity markets; Iowa farmboy http://scotthirwin.com/email-updates/
1. Some gorgeous evening views of the University of Illinois campus from James Baltz of the farmdoc team. Truly stunning pictures. I hope I never forget how fortunate I am to work in such a beautiful setting.

CHART OF THE DAY: America has an electricity problem. Retail power costs in the US are rising very, very quickly (>35% over the last 5 years) — in some part due to expensive grid investment. My @Opinion colleague @liamdenning has the details here: bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
During the next 8-14 days, the ECMWF and AIFS-ENS are forecasting below normal temps. The GEFS is forecasting near normal temps. This is great news for the #corn crop if this forecast holds. Analyze the #agwx impact on #grains using CropProphet: bit.ly/TryCropProphet #oatt
We have 1 more week of fcstd above nrml temps. The ECMWF & AIFS-ENS both fcst the 1-7 day US #corn prod wghtd precip to be ~4°F above nrml and the GEFS is fcstng a value of 6.2°F above nrml. This is something we need to monitor over the next week, but...see below! #oatt #agwx
No twisted tassels in the Champaign County Field of Dreams. A jungle of vegetation, pollen, and shoots. Inch of rain in last week saved the crop. But will need more to finish well. Been in a dry pocket the last month. Looks very good overall considering the dryness.

A nice balanced overview of conditions across a wide swath of the Corn Belt
I wrote more about Crop Watch progress on Monday here. Check it out! linkedin.com/pulse/crop-wat…
#CropWatch25 producers are cautiously optimistic about their #soybeans. Current yield potential is average compared with past mid-July expectations, but recent weather has been supportive. Just need the rains to stay on through next month.
🌽#CropWatch25 #corn has either pollinated or is doing so now. Only potential issues reported are out of western Iowa, where the top leaf and the tassel are intertwined. Pollination impacts are unclear for now. Otherwise, corn looks good, plenty of moisture for most fields.
YouTube now owns 12.5% of all U.S. TV viewing time - more than any other distributor. 1B+ hours are watched daily on YouTube, surpassing Disney across broadcast, cable, and streaming. No studios. No soundstages. No scripts. Just total living room dominance. $GOOGL
We’re about to hit 3 years of 6.5% <---> 7.5% mortgage rate purgatory Sure, the average 30-year fixed has had a couple of brief breaks from it, but we keep getting sucked back in
Current Yield Estimates (Grok 4) 🌽Corn 183 (no change) 🌱Soybeans 53 +0.5
Current Yield Estimates (Grok 4) 🌽Corn 183 (USDA @ 181) 🌱Soybeans 52.5 BPA (USDA @ 52.5)
Our latest update post June EMTS data is out!
June biomass-diesel RIN generation rose 9% from May (revised up 19%). 2025 needs incl. exports: 7.99B Annualized 6M 2025 Supply: 6.45B Domestic Capacity at full tilt starting in July: 7.66B #OOTT #OOAT #EFT #RINS
Don't count the US consumer out yet. Pretty incredible bounce back in retail sales in June that beat expectations. Even auto sales (see the light gray bar) had a strong comeback in June. "Total sales for the April 2025 through June 2025 period were up 4.1% from the same period…
This is wild.
Uhhh, high fructose corn syrup bro’s, I don’t feel so good 🌽
If you are interested in the details of current biofuels policy in the US and associated market impacts, this webinar is for you. I was honored to be part of such a distinguished panel of industry experts. A lot of good information! The video is available here:…
A replay of today's session is now available! It will prompt you to input some contact information and then it is accessible to anyone. Thanks again to the panelists and all of you who filled out the poll. I hope you enjoy this as much as I did! 🔗bloomberg.com/professional/i…
🚨 Wondering how some folks got EMTS RIN data before the usual 3rd Thursday drop? We found the trick: RIN generation data by D-code is quietly posted early here 👉 epa.gov/system/files/o… Just tweak the URL with the right month/year. 👀 #OOTT #EFT #OOAT #RINs #45z