Brendan H
@Smkfldroomblog
Free market absolutist, data nerd, politico, and hockey fan 🏒
Yes. Writing is not a second thing that happens after thinking. The act of writing is an act of thinking. Writing *is* thinking. Students, academics, and anyone else who outsources their writing to LLMs will find their screens full of words and their minds emptied of thought.
Good luck trying to overturn your independent redistricting commission.
🚨BREAKING NEWS — CALIFORNIA HOUSE DEMOCRATS are looking to get 5-7 more seats in Congress in mid-decade redistricting being pushed by @GavinNewsom @allymutnick and I have all the details in @PunchbowlNews link.punchbowl.news/click/40719032…
Kinda concerning that the highest rated news source in Canada is state run media. The National Post, which is the mainstream Conservative news source in Canada, is even labeled as "Center" by Ad Fontes, but only 49% of Canada trust them. Tells you a lot of Canadian politics.
Those who say (X) is trustworthy: Weather Network: 73% CBC: 72% CTV: 67% Global: 65% BBC: 57% Globe & Mail: 56% CNN: 56% Canadian Press: 54% National Post: 49% New York Times: 49% Toronto Star: 47% Maclean's: 43% Sun Newspapers: 31% Metro: 26% 24 Hours: 26% Fox News: 24%…
Inspired by @umichvoter, and since my following is relatively balanced, I'm gonna give this a try: A mock 2028 Democratic AND Republican Primary, Ranked Choice Voting! This is a pretty ambitious attempt so please retweet to as many ppl as possible. docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAI…
Zohran Mamdani officially wins NYC Dem Primary by a margin of 12%!!!
I feel like Trump may have seriously mis-calculated with Tillis. Now he may have just thrown a seat to the Dems and lost a close ally in the Senate for the next year and a half. (Tillis can literally just obstruct if he wants without any repercussions)
Why do some Democrats love adopting Republican language, things like "Project 2029" and "Democratic Tea Party", like their counterparts were some resounding successes
NEWS: A group of Democratic thinkers are plotting to lay out a new agenda for the left. They’re called it Project 2029. Comes in middle of raging Democratic debate: whether the party needs better ideas or just better salesmanship to succeed in 2028. nytimes.com/2025/06/30/us/…
Hey, it’s @ChazNuttycombe launching the @StateNavigate Virginia forecast!
Please someone donate a little money to me I am nearing broke again: buy.stripe.com/cN2eV74NfaOIbV…
We now have three polls a piece out for both Hochul v. Lawler and Hochul v. Stefanik matchups in 2026 for the New York Governor's race. Both show a very similar environment to 2022, which Zeldin only lost by 6.4%
From what I can find, it seems like the average swing in major off-year partisan elections is highly predictive of the house popular vote a year later. So definitely keep an eye on Virginia and New Jersey this November.
So Newsom is at 46% in a state Harris won 59% vote, and Trump is at 29% in a state where he won 38% of the vote. So, Newsom is -13% below Dem vote share and Trump is -9% below Rep vote share. Pretty mediocre poll for both.
New - Approval poll (California) 🔵 Newsom 46% 🔴 Trump 29% PPIC #B - LV - 5/29
There is no problem in having a convention. Any Amendment would still have to be ratified by 2/3 of the Senate and 3/4 of the legislatures. This is a weird line people are taking. If anything, both Democrats and Republicans should want a convention.
It's incredibly important that Democrats always have at least partial control in a minimum of 17 state legislatures. They currently have it in 22.
To think if Obama won is primary in 2000, he probably never would have been elected President.
Check out my latest on Substack! open.substack.com/pub/smokefille…
How Party Defection Compares to District Margin of Victory: open.substack.com/pub/smokefille…
I love how this guy just consistently lies and hopes no one fact checks him. worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankin…
Actually impressive the one with a smaller GDP has a better standard of life in just about every conceivable way
What's with their being an almost perfect North-South gradient?
Fun fact: Western Canada is the most irreligious place in America
Rating Iowa as Lean Republican is some major wish-casting
New Senate rankings: #NCSen: Toss-up #GASen: Lean Democratic #NHSen: Likely Democratic #MESen: Lean Republican (now that Golden passed) #MI: Lean Democratic #TXSen: Lean Republican (depends on Cornyn/Paxton) #MNSen: Likely Democratic #IASen: Lean Republican